The No. 16 seed Texas Southern Tigers (16-8) and the No. 16 seed Mount St. Mary’s Mountaineers (12-10) play in the NCAA Tournament First Four on Thursday, starting at 5:10 PM ET. The matchup is set as a pick ’em.
The betting insights and predictions in this article reflect betting data from DraftKings as of March 15, 2021, 4:10 PM ET. See table below for current betting odds and CLICK HERE to bet at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Best Betting Odds
Pick ATS: Texas Southern Tigers (pick)
Both DraftKings and the model expect the Tigers to walk away with the win, but the model spread (1.8) is 1.8 points further in their direction.
Pick OU: Over (132)
The DraftKings point total for this matchup is just 2.8 points lower than the model projection.
Prediction: Texas Southern 68, Mount St. Mary’s 66
Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm (raw power score) that ranks head-to-head matchup results within a closed network of games. Prediction confidence is determined by the delta between each team’s raw power score.
Examining the Over/Under
- The average implied total for the Tigers this season is 73.6 points, 7.6 more points than their implied total of 66 points in Thursday’s game.
- This season, Texas Southern has scored more than its implied point total for this matchup (66) 21 times.
- The average implied point total on the season for the Mountaineers (67.8) is 1.8 more points than the team’s implied total in this matchup (66).
- Mount St. Mary’s has totaled more than 66 points 11 times this season.
Implied totals are projected point totals for each team based on totals and spreads set by sportsbooks.
Texas Southern and Mount St. Mary’s Records ATS
|ATS Record||ATS Record Against 0+ Point Spread||Over/Under Record (O-U-P)|
Against The Spread (ATS) records are only reflective of games that had odds on them.
Betting Tips – Shooting Stats
- The Tigers are shooting 45.9% from the field this season, 5.4 percentage points higher than the 40.5% the Mountaineers allow to opponents.
- Texas Southern has put together an 8-9-2 record against the spread and a 15-6 straight-up record in games it shoots better than 40.5% from the field.
- Mount St. Mary’s is 11-7 against the spread and 12-7 overall when allowing opponents to shoot higher than 45.9% from the field.
- The Mountaineers’ 42.5% shooting percentage from the field this season is 2.7 percentage points higher than the Tigers have given up to their opponents (39.8%).
- Mount St. Mary’s is 10-5 overall and 10-3 against the spread when it shoots better than 39.8% from the field.
- When opponents of Texas Southern shoot above 42.5% from the field, it is 7-4 against the spread and 11-1 overall.
- The Tigers shoot 27.4% from beyond the arc, 2.7% lower than the 30.1% the Mountaineers allow to opponents.
- Texas Southern has a 3-6-1 record against the spread and a 6-5 record overall when the team makes more than 30.1% of its attempts from three-point range.
- Mount St. Mary’s is 5-3 against the spread and 5-3 overall when its opponents hit more than 27.4% of their shots from deep.
- The Mountaineers are knocking down 33.6% of their shots from three-point range, which is 2.6 percentage points higher than the 31% the Tigers’ are averaging on the season.
- Mount St. Mary’s is 7-3 ATS and 7-5 overall when the team makes more than 31% of its three-point attempts.
- Texas Southern has a 10-2 straight-up record and an 8-3 ATS record this season when it makes more than 33.6% of its three-point attempts.
- The Tigers make 4.6 three-pointers per game this season, two fewer makes per game than the Mountaineers give up (6.6).
- Mount St. Mary’s is 9-3 against the spread and 8-5 overall when it makes more three-pointers than its opponents, while Texas Southern is 6-7-1 ATS and 10-5 straight up in games when it is out-shot from distance.
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