Florida vs. Virginia Tech Picks & Best Bets — March Madness 2021

Posted By PlayPicks Staff on March 17, 2021

The No. 7 seed Florida Gators (14-9) are on the spread to defeat the No. 10 seed Virginia Tech Hokies (15-6) in the first round of the NCAA Tournament on Friday. The matchup starts at 12:15 PM ET on CBS. Here are some insights into this South Region contest for those filling out their brackets.

The betting insights and predictions in this article reflect betting data from DraftKings as of March 15, 2021, 4:10 PM ET. See table below for current betting odds and CLICK HERE to bet at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Best Betting Odds

Computer Picks

Pick ATS: Florida Gators (-1)

Both DraftKings and the model expect the Gators to walk away with the victory, but the model spread (1.9) is 0.9 points further in their direction.

Pick OU: Over (137.5)

In this matchup, the model projects a total (140.7 points) marginally higher than the DraftKings over/under (137.5 points).

Prediction: Florida 71, Virginia Tech 69

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm (raw power score) that ranks head-to-head matchup results within a closed network of games. Prediction confidence is determined by the delta between each team’s raw power score.

Examining the Over/Under

  • The Gators have an average implied point total of 75 this season, which is five points higher than their implied total in Friday’s game (70).
  • This season, Florida has outscored its implied point total for this matchup (70) 16 times.
  • The Hokies’ average implied point total on the season (71.6 points) is 3.6 points higher than their implied total in this matchup (68 points).
  • Virginia Tech will look to surpass its implied point total for this matchup (68) for the 13th time this season.

Implied totals are projected point totals for each team based on totals and spreads set by sportsbooks.

Florida and Virginia Tech Records ATS

ATS Record ATS Record Against 1+ Point Spread Over/Under Record (O-U-P)
Gators 9-12 5-6 9-12
Hokies 11-9 7-7 11-9

Against The Spread (ATS) records are only reflective of games that had odds on them.

Betting Tips – Shooting Stats

  • The Gators make 46.4% of their shots from the field this season, which is 4.5 percentage points higher than the Hokies have allowed to their opponents (41.9%).
  • Florida has amassed a 9-5 record against the spread and a 14-2 straight-up record in games it shoots better than 41.9% from the field.
  • Virginia Tech is 14-1 overall and 10-4 against the spread when allowing its opponents to shoot higher than 46.4% from the field.
  • The Hokies’ 45.3% shooting percentage from the field this season is 3.2 percentage points higher than the Gators have given up to their opponents (42.1%).
  • Virginia Tech has put together a 9-5 record against the spread and a 12-2 record overall in games when it shoots over 42.1% from the field.
  • Florida is 13-2 overall and 8-5 against the spread in games it allows opponents to shoot greater than 45.3% from the field.
  • The Gators shoot 35.7% from beyond the arc, 2.7% higher than the 33% the Hokies allow to opponents.
  • Florida is 7-6 against the spread and 9-5 overall when it shoots better than 33% from deep.
  • Virginia Tech has put together an 8-4 against the spread while going 12-1 overall in games this season when its opponents shoot better than 35.7% from deep.
  • The Hokies three-point shooting percentage this season (35.7%) is 5.2 percentage points higher than opponents of the Gators are averaging (30.5%).
  • Virginia Tech is 8-5 against the spread and 11-2 overall when it shoots over 30.5% as a team from deep.
  • Florida is 6-6 ATS and 9-4 overall in games it shoots above 35.7% from deep.
  • The Gators’ 6.8 made three-pointers per game this season is 1.4 fewer made shots on average than the 8.2 per game the Hokies give up.
  • When Virginia Tech makes more threes than its opponents, it is 8-3 against the spread and 9-2 overall. When Florida is out-shot from deep by its opponents, it is 2-2 ATS and 5-1 straight up.

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