Arkansas vs. Colgate Picks & Best Bets — March Madness 2021

Posted By PlayPicks Staff on March 17, 2021

The No. 3 seed Arkansas Razorbacks (22-6) and the No. 14 seed Colgate Raiders (14-1) will meet in the first round of the NCAA Tournament on Friday at 12:45 PM ET. Arkansas is favored by in the matchup, which airs on TRU. Here’s everything you need to know about this 3-14 matchup when filling out your brackets.

The betting insights and predictions in this article reflect betting data from DraftKings as of March 15, 2021, 4:10 PM ET. See table below for current betting odds and CLICK HERE to bet at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Best Betting Odds

Computer Picks

Pick ATS: Colgate Raiders (+9)

The model line is much more favorable to the Raiders compared to the DraftKings line, a 10.2 point difference, and has them favored to win Friday’s game outright. Put your money on the Raiders.

Pick OU: Under (162.5)

The model predicts a total (154.0 points) much lower than the one set by DraftKings for this matchup (162.5 points). Take the under.

Prediction: Colgate 78, Arkansas 76

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm (raw power score) that ranks head-to-head matchup results within a closed network of games. Prediction confidence is determined by the delta between each team’s raw power score.

Examining the Over/Under

  • The Razorbacks have an average implied point total of 80.4 this season, which is 5.6 points lower than their implied total in Friday’s game (86).
  • Arkansas has outscored this matchup’s implied point total (86) 10 times.
  • The average implied point total on the season for the Raiders (80.9) is 3.9 more points than the team’s implied total in this matchup (77).
  • Colgate will attempt to surpass its implied point total for this matchup (77) for the 13th time this season.

Implied totals are projected point totals for each team based on totals and spreads set by sportsbooks.

Arkansas and Colgate Records ATS

ATS Record ATS Record Against 9+ Point Spread Over/Under Record (O-U-P)
Razorbacks 18-9 6-3 15-12
Raiders 10-5 5-4 8-7

Against The Spread (ATS) records are only reflective of games that had odds on them.

Betting Tips – Shooting Stats

  • The Razorbacks are shooting 45.5% from the field this season, 4.7 percentage points higher than the 40.8% the Raiders allow to opponents.
  • In games when Arkansas shoots higher than 40.8% from the field, it is 17-5 against the spread and 20-3 overall.
  • Colgate’s record is 12-1 overall and 9-4 against the spread when its opponents make more than 45.5% of their shots from the field.
  • The Raiders are shooting 49.9% from the field, 8.3% higher than the 41.6% the Razorbacks’ opponents have shot this season.
  • Colgate has compiled a 9-5 record against the spread and a 13-1 straight up record in games it shoots above 41.6% from the field.
  • Arkansas is 17-6 against the spread and 20-4 straight up in games when allowing opponents to shoot over 49.9% from the field.
  • The Razorbacks shoot 33.8% from beyond the arc, 7.7% higher than the 26.1% the Raiders allow to opponents.
  • Arkansas is 20-2 overall and 17-4 against the spread when it shoots better than 26.1% from distance.
  • Colgate has an 8-3 record against the spread while going 11-0 overall in games this season when its opponents shoot better than 33.8% from downtown.
  • The Raiders are hitting 40.2% of their shots from beyond the arc, which is 7.6 percentage points higher than the 32.6% the Razorbacks’ are averaging on the season.
  • Colgate is 8-1 ATS and 9-0 overall when hitting more than 32.6% of its three-point attempts.
  • Arkansas has a 15-6 ATS record and an 18-4 straight-up record this season in games it has shot better than 40.2% from three-point distance.
  • The Razorbacks’ 7.9 made three-pointers per game this season is 1.2 fewer made shots on average than the 9.1 per game the Raiders allow.
  • The Raiders are 9-1 against the spread and 10-0 overall when they make more threes than their opponents, while the Razorbacks are 7-6 ATS and 10-3 straight up in games when they are out-shot from the three-point line.

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