Texas Tech vs. Utah State Picks & Best Bets — March Madness 2021

Posted By PlayPicks Staff on March 15, 2021 - Last Updated on March 23, 2021

The No. 6 seed Texas Tech Red Raiders (17-10) are a favorite in the opening round of the NCAA Tournament against the No. 11 seed Utah State Aggies (20-8) on Friday. The contest begins at 1:45 PM ET on TNT. Here are insights into this South Region 6-11 matchup to help you fill out your bracket.

The betting insights and predictions in this article reflect betting data from DraftKings as of March 15, 2021, 4:10 PM ET. See table below for current betting odds and CLICK HERE to bet at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Best Betting Odds

Computer Picks

Pick ATS: Utah State Aggies (+5)

The model and DraftKings both have the Red Raiders taking home the win, but the model has them winning by slightly less (2.2 points). Lean towards taking the Aggies.

Pick OU: Over (131.5)

The DraftKings point total for this game is just 4.1 points lower than the model projection.

Prediction: Texas Tech 69, Utah State 67

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm (raw power score) that ranks head-to-head matchup results within a closed network of games. Prediction confidence is determined by the delta between each team’s raw power score.

Examining the Over/Under

  • The Red Raiders’ average implied point total this season is 5.3 more points than their implied total in Friday’s game (73.3 implied points on average compared to 68 implied points in this game).
  • Texas Tech has outscored this matchup’s implied point total (68) 20 times.
  • The Aggies’ average implied point total on the season (73.2 points) is 10.2 points higher than their implied total in this matchup (63 points).
  • Utah State is trying to surpass its implied point total for this matchup (63) for the 22nd time this season.

Implied totals are projected point totals for each team based on totals and spreads set by sportsbooks.

Texas Tech and Utah State Records ATS

ATS Record ATS Record Against 5+ Point Spread Over/Under Record (O-U-P)
Red Raiders 9-17 6-8 12-14
Aggies 15-10 11-5 10-15

Against The Spread (ATS) records are only reflective of games that had odds on them.

Betting Tips – Shooting Stats

  • The Red Raiders are shooting 44.3% from the field this season, 5.5 percentage points higher than the 38.8% the Aggies allow to opponents.
  • Texas Tech has a 9-13 record against the spread and a 15-8 straight-up record in games it shoots better than 38.8% from the field.
  • Utah State’s record is 19-2 overall and 14-5 against the spread when its opponents make more than 44.3% of their shots from the field.
  • The Aggies have shot at a 44.6% clip from the field this season, 3.6 percentage points greater than the 41% shooting opponents of the Red Raiders have averaged.
  • Utah State is 17-4 overall and 13-5 against the spread when it hits more than 41% of its attempts from the field.
  • This season, Texas Tech has a 9-10 record against the spread and a 15-5 straight up record when it allows opponents to shoot greater than 44.6% from the field.
  • The Red Raiders are hitting 34.8% of their three-point shots this season, 1.7% higher than the 33.1% the Aggies allow opponents to shoot from deep.
  • Texas Tech is 7-8 against the spread and 10-6 overall when it shoots better than 33.1% from deep.
  • Utah State is 11-4 against the spread and 14-2 overall when its opponents make more than 34.8% of their shots from deep.
  • The Aggies shoot 33.6% from three-point distance this season. That’s only 1.7 percentage points lower than the Red Raiders have allowed their opponents to shoot from deep (35.3%).
  • Utah State is 9-2 against the spread and 12-0 overall when shooting above 35.3% as a team from three-point range.
  • Texas Tech is 12-4 overall and 7-8 ATS in games it shoots above 33.6% from deep.
  • Utah State has gone 10-1 against the spread and 10-1 overall this season in games it has out-shot its opponents from the three-point line. When Texas Tech makes fewer three-pointers than its opponents, it is 4-12 ATS and 9-7 straight up.

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