Baylor vs. Hartford Picks & Best Bets — March Madness 2021

Posted By PlayPicks Staff on March 15, 2021 - Last Updated on March 25, 2021

The top-seeded Baylor Bears (22-2) are favorites to advance to the second round of the NCAA Tournament when they face off against the No. 16 Hartford Hawks (15-8) on Friday, beginning at 3:30 PM ET on TRU. Here’s everything you need to know about this 1-16 matchup before filling out your bracket.

The betting insights and predictions in this article reflect betting data from DraftKings as of March 15, 2021, 4:10 PM ET. See table below for current betting odds and CLICK HERE to bet at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Best Betting Odds

Computer Picks

Pick ATS: Hartford Hawks (+26)

The model favors the Bears by 17.9 points, a much smaller margin than the 26-point spread set by DraftKings. Take the Hawks to cover.

Pick OU: Under (141)

The DraftKings total for this game, 141 points, and the model’s projected total, 140.0 points, are only 1.0 point apart.

Prediction: Baylor 79, Hartford 61

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm (raw power score) that ranks head-to-head matchup results within a closed network of games. Prediction confidence is determined by the delta between each team’s raw power score.

Examining the Over/Under

  • The Bears’ average implied point total this season is 3.9 fewer points than their implied total in Friday’s game (80.1 implied points on average compared to 84 implied points in this game).
  • Baylor has scored more than its implied point total for this matchup (84) 10 times this season.
  • The Hawks’ average implied point total on the season (70.5 points) is 12.5 points higher than their implied total in this matchup (58 points).
  • This season, Hartford has scored more than this game’s implied total of 58 points 17 times.

Implied totals are projected point totals for each team based on totals and spreads set by sportsbooks.

Baylor and Hartford Records ATS

ATS Record ATS Record Against 26+ Point Spread Over/Under Record (O-U-P)
Bears 14-8-1 2-1 14-9
Hawks 11-7-1 0-0 7-12

Against The Spread (ATS) records are only reflective of games that had odds on them.

Betting Tips – Shooting Stats

  • The Bears are shooting 49.4% from the field this season, 7.6 percentage points higher than the 41.8% the Hawks allow to opponents.
  • Baylor has a 22-0 straight-up record and a 14-6-1 record against the spread in games it shoots better than 41.8% from the field.
  • Hartford’s record is 13-4 overall and 10-3-1 against the spread when its opponents make more than 49.4% of their shots from the field.
  • The Hawks’ 43.4% shooting percentage from the field this season is 0.1 percentage points higher than the Bears have allowed to their opponents (43.3%).
  • Hartford has an 8-4 record against the spread and a 12-2 record overall in games when it shoots higher than 43.3% from the field.
  • Baylor is 9-2 against the spread and 11-0 overall in games its opponents shoot higher than 43.4% from the field.
  • The Bears’ 41.8% three-point shooting percentage this season is 13.1 percentage points higher than opponents of the Hawks have shot from beyond the arc (28.7%).
  • Baylor has a 14-5-1 record against the spread and a 21-0 record overall when the team makes more than 28.7% of its attempts from three-point range.
  • Hartford has put together a 14-7 straight-up record and gone 11-5-1 against the spread in games when its opponents shoot above 41.8% from three-point distance.
  • The Hawks’ three-point shooting percentage this season (32.7%) is just 1.2 percentage points lower than opponents of the Bears are averaging (33.9%).
  • Hartford is 5-3 against the spread and 9-1 overall when shooting over 33.9% as a team from three-point range.
  • Baylor has an 8-2 ATS record and a 10-1 straight-up record this season in games it has shot better than 32.7% from three-point range.
  • The Bears hit 10.3 three-pointers per game this season, 2.7 more makes per game than the Hawks allow (7.6).
  • The Bears are 11-5 against the spread and 16-1 overall when they make more threes than their opponents, while the Hawks are 4-2 ATS and 3-3 straight up in games when they are out-shot from the three-point line.

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