The No. 5 seed Tennessee Volunteers (18-8) are favored () to beat the No. 12 seed Oregon State Beavers (17-12) in the first round of the NCAA Tournament on Friday. The contest tips off at 4:30 PM ET on TNT. Here are some insights into this Midwest Region contest for those filling out their brackets.
The betting insights and predictions in this article reflect betting data from DraftKings as of March 15, 2021, 4:10 PM ET. See table below for current betting odds and CLICK HERE to bet at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Best Betting Odds
Pick ATS: Oregon State Beavers (+7.5)
The model line and the DraftKings line are within 0.2 points of each other.
Pick OU: Over (131.5)
In this game, the model projects a total (137.0 points) marginally higher than the DraftKings over/under (131.5 points).
Prediction: Tennessee 72, Oregon State 65
Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm (raw power score) that ranks head-to-head matchup results within a closed network of games. Prediction confidence is determined by the delta between each team’s raw power score.
Examining the Over/Under
- The average implied total for the Volunteers this season is 73.5 points, 3.5 more points than their implied total of 70 points in Friday’s game.
- This season, Tennessee has outscored its implied point total for this matchup (70) 14 times.
- The 72.4-point average implied total on the season for the Beavers is 10.4 more points than the team’s 62-point implied total in this matchup.
- Oregon State will try to outscore its implied point total for this matchup (62) for the 22nd time this season.
Implied totals are projected point totals for each team based on totals and spreads set by sportsbooks.
Tennessee and Oregon State Records ATS
|ATS Record||ATS Record Against 7.5+ Point Spread||Over/Under Record (O-U-P)|
Against The Spread (ATS) records are only reflective of games that had odds on them.
Betting Tips – Shooting Stats
- This season, the Volunteers have a 44.3% shooting percentage from the field, which is 0.4% higher than the 43.9% of shots the Beavers’ opponents have made.
- In games when Tennessee shoots better than 43.9% from the field, it is 14-0 overall and 11-3 against the spread.
- Oregon State’s record is 12-2-1 against the spread and 11-5 overall when its opponents make more than 44.3% of their shots from the field.
- The Beavers have shot at a 43.4% rate from the field this season, 3.5 percentage points higher than the 39.9% shooting opponents of the Volunteers have averaged.
- Oregon State is 16-5 overall and 16-3-1 against the spread when it shoots higher than 39.9% from the field.
- This season, Tennessee has a 14-6 record against the spread and a 15-5 record overall when its opponents shoot greater than 43.4% from the field.
- The Volunteers shoot 33.8% from three-point range, 3.1% higher than the 30.7% the Beavers allow to opponents.
- Tennessee has an 11-6 record against the spread and a 13-4 record overall when the team knocks down more than 30.7% of its three-point attempts.
- Oregon State has put together a 14-3-1 against the spread while going 14-5 overall in games this season when its opponents shoot higher than 33.8% from deep.
- The Beavers are making 35.2% of their shots from deep, which is 3.4 percentage points higher than the 31.8% the Volunteers’ are averaging on the season.
- Oregon State’s record is 12-5-1 ATS and 13-6 overall when the team hits more than 31.8% of its three-point attempts.
- Tennessee has a 13-5 straight-up record and an 11-7 ATS record when it has shot better than 35.2% from three-point range.
- Oregon State is 11-3 against the spread and 10-5 overall when it connects on more three-pointers than its opponents, while Tennessee is 4-5 ATS and 6-3 straight up in games when it is out-shot from deep.
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