Oklahoma State vs. Liberty Picks & Best Bets — March Madness 2021

Posted By PlayPicks Staff on March 16, 2021 - Last Updated on March 23, 2021

The 13th-seeded Liberty Flames (23-5) hit the court in the opening round of the NCAA Tournament against the No. 4 seed Oklahoma State Cowboys (20-8) on Friday. The contest starts at 6:25 PM ET on TBS. Liberty is a underdog in the game. Here’s what you need to know before filling out your brackets for this 4-13 matchup in the Midwest Region.

The betting insights and predictions in this article reflect betting data from DraftKings as of March 15, 2021, 4:10 PM ET. See table below for current betting odds and CLICK HERE to bet at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Best Betting Odds

Computer Picks

Pick ATS: Liberty Flames (+7.5)

The DraftKings line for this matchup is within 0.4 points of the model. Stay away from this one.

Pick OU: Over (142)

The model’s predicted total (142.7 points) and the DraftKings set total (142 points) are virtually the same for this contest.

Prediction: Oklahoma State 75, Liberty 68

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm (raw power score) that ranks head-to-head matchup results within a closed network of games. Prediction confidence is determined by the delta between each team’s raw power score.

Examining the Over/Under

  • The average implied total for the Cowboys this season is 76 points, one more point than their implied total of 75 points in Friday’s game.
  • Oklahoma State is trying to outscore its implied point total for this matchup (75) for the 17th time this season.
  • The Flames’ average implied point total on the season (72 points) is five points higher than their implied total in this matchup (67 points).
  • Liberty has put up more than 67 points in 21 games on the season.

Implied totals are projected point totals for each team based on totals and spreads set by sportsbooks.

Oklahoma State and Liberty Records ATS

ATS Record ATS Record Against 7.5+ Point Spread Over/Under Record (O-U-P)
Cowboys 17-10-1 3-4 18-8-2
Flames 16-7 10-6 12-11

Against The Spread (ATS) records are only reflective of games that had odds on them.

Betting Tips – Shooting Stats

  • The Cowboys make 46.8% of their shots from the field this season, which is 5.8 percentage points higher than the Flames have allowed to their opponents (41%).
  • Oklahoma State has an 18-7 straight-up record and a 16-8-1 record against the spread in games it shoots higher than 41% from the field.
  • Liberty is 13-4 against the spread and 19-2 overall when allowing opponents to shoot better than 46.8% from the field.
  • The Flames have shot at a 49.2% clip from the field this season, 7.8 percentage points greater than the 41.4% shooting opponents of the Cowboys have averaged.
  • Liberty is 22-1 overall and 14-5 against the spread when it shoots better than 41.4% from the field.
  • Oklahoma State is 18-5 overall and 14-8-1 against the spread in games it allows opponents to shoot higher than 49.2% from the field.
  • The Cowboys shoot 33.8% from deep, 2.6% higher than the 31.2% the Flames allow to opponents.
  • Oklahoma State is 13-5 against the spread and 14-4 overall when it shoots better than 31.2% from distance.
  • Liberty is 11-5 against the spread while putting up a 16-4 straight-up record when its opponents make more than 33.8% of their shots from three-point distance.
  • The Flames shoot 39.1% from beyond the arc this season. That’s 7.3 percentage points higher than the Cowboys have allowed their opponents to shoot from deep (31.8%).
  • Liberty is 14-2 against the spread and 20-1 overall when shooting over 31.8% as a team from three-point range.
  • Oklahoma State has a 15-5-1 ATS record and a 17-4 straight-up record this season in games it has shot better than 39.1% from three-point distance.
  • The Cowboys hit 6.4 three-pointers per game this season, 3.9 fewer made shots on average than the 10.3 per game the Flames give up.
  • Liberty is 13-3 against the spread and 17-4 overall when it makes more three-pointers than its opponents, while Oklahoma State is 9-6 ATS and 9-6 straight up in games when it is out-shot from deep.

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