North Carolina vs. Wisconsin Picks & Best Bets — March Madness 2021

Posted By PlayPicks Staff on March 17, 2021

The No. 8 seed North Carolina Tar Heels (18-10) and the No. 9 seed Wisconsin Badgers (17-12) will meet on Friday at 7:10 PM ET in the opening round of the NCAA Tournament. North Carolina is a favorite in the contest, which airs on CBS. Here’s everything you need to know ahead of this 8-9 matchup in the South Region bracket.

The betting insights and predictions in this article reflect betting data from DraftKings as of March 15, 2021, 4:10 PM ET. See table below for current betting odds and CLICK HERE to bet at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Best Betting Odds

Computer Picks

Pick ATS: Wisconsin Badgers (+1.5)

The DraftKings line for this matchup is within 0.5 points of the model. Stay away from this one.

Pick OU: Over (139.5)

The DraftKings total for this game, 139.5 points, and the model’s projected total, 139.5 points, are 0.0 points apart.

Prediction: North Carolina 70, Wisconsin 69

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm (raw power score) that ranks head-to-head matchup results within a closed network of games. Prediction confidence is determined by the delta between each team’s raw power score.

Examining the Over/Under

  • The Tar Heels’ average implied point total this season is 4.9 more points than their implied total in Friday’s game (75.9 implied points on average compared to 71 implied points in this game).
  • North Carolina has scored more than its implied point total in this matchup (71) 18 times this season.
  • The Badgers’ average implied point total on the season (69.5 points) is 0.5 points higher than their implied total in this matchup (69 points).
  • Wisconsin has scored more than 69 points in 15 games this season.

Implied totals are projected point totals for each team based on totals and spreads set by sportsbooks.

North Carolina and Wisconsin Records ATS

ATS Record ATS Record Against 1.5+ Point Spread Over/Under Record (O-U-P)
Tar Heels 13-14-1 11-9-1 13-15
Badgers 12-16 10-11 14-13

Against The Spread (ATS) records are only reflective of games that had odds on them.

Betting Tips – Shooting Stats

  • The Tar Heels make 44% of their shots from the field this season, which is 1.8 percentage points higher than the Badgers have allowed to their opponents (42.2%).
  • In games North Carolina shoots higher than 42.2% from the field, it is 9-5-1 against the spread and 12-3 overall.
  • Wisconsin is 10-6 against the spread and 14-3 overall in games it allows its opponents to shoot better than 44% from the field.
  • The Badgers’ 41.9% shooting percentage from the field this season is 0.2 percentage points lower than the Tar Heels have given up to their opponents (42.1%).
  • Wisconsin is 8-6 against the spread and 11-3 overall when it shoots better than 42.1% from the field.
  • This season, North Carolina has a 9-6-1 record against the spread and a 12-4 record overall when its opponents shoot higher than 41.9% from the field.
  • The Tar Heels shoot 31.6% from three-point range, 1.4% lower than the 33% the Badgers allow to opponents.
  • North Carolina has collected a 7-7-1 record against the spread and an 11-4 straight-up record in games this season when connecting on more than 33% of its three-point shots.
  • Wisconsin is 10-4 overall and 8-5 against the spread when its opponents shoot better than 31.6% from deep.
  • The Badgers are making 35.9% of their shots from three-point distance, which is only 1.5 percentage points greater than the 34.4% the Tar Heels’ opponents are averaging on the season.
  • Wisconsin is 10-6 against the spread and 12-4 overall when it shoots above 34.4% as a team from deep.
  • North Carolina has a 10-3-1 ATS record and a 12-2 straight-up record in games this season it has shot better than 35.9% from distance.
  • The Tar Heels’ 5.6 made three-pointers per game this season is three fewer made shots on average than the 8.6 per game the Badgers give up.
  • Wisconsin has gone 10-10 against the spread and 13-8 overall this season in games it has out-shot its opponents from the three-point line. When North Carolina makes fewer threes than its opponents, it is 7-11-1 ATS and 11-8 straight up.

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