Purdue vs. North Texas Picks & Best Bets — March Madness 2021

Posted By PlayPicks Staff on March 16, 2021 - Last Updated on March 23, 2021

The No. 4 seed Purdue Boilermakers (18-9) and the No. 13 seed North Texas Mean Green (17-9) will meet on Friday at 7:25 PM ET in the opening round of the NCAA Tournament. Purdue is a favorite in the contest, which airs on TNT. Here’s everything you need to know ahead of this 4-13 matchup in the South Region bracket.

The betting insights and predictions in this article reflect betting data from DraftKings as of March 15, 2021, 4:10 PM ET. See table below for current betting odds and CLICK HERE to bet at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Best Betting Odds

Computer Picks

Pick ATS: Mean Green (+7.5)

The model and DraftKings both have the Boilermakers taking home the win, but the model has them winning by slightly less (6.0 points). Lean towards taking the Mean Green.

Pick OU: Over (126.5)

The model projects a total 6.6 points higher than the one set by DraftKings for this game.

Prediction: Purdue 70, North Texas 64

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm (raw power score) that ranks head-to-head matchup results within a closed network of games. Prediction confidence is determined by the delta between each team’s raw power score.

Examining the Over/Under

  • The average implied total for the Boilermakers this season is 71.6 points, 4.6 more points than their implied total of 67 points in Friday’s game.
  • Purdue has outscored this matchup’s implied point total (67) 21 times.
  • The Mean Green’s average implied point total on the season (72 points) is 12 points higher than their implied total in this matchup (60 points).
  • North Texas is aiming to outscore its implied point total for this matchup (60) for the 20th time this season.

Implied totals are projected point totals for each team based on totals and spreads set by sportsbooks.

Purdue and North Texas Records ATS

ATS Record ATS Record (7.5+ Point Spread) Over/Under Record
Boilermakers 14-9-1 1-2 12-12
Mean Green 16-8 7-1 9-15

Against The Spread (ATS) records are only reflective of games that had odds on them.

Betting Tips – Shooting Stats

  • The Boilermakers are shooting 45.1% from the field this season, 4.3 percentage points higher than the 40.8% the Mean Green allow to opponents.
  • In games when Purdue shoots higher than 40.8% from the field, it is 12-5 against the spread and 14-5 overall.
  • North Texas’ record is 15-4 overall and 15-4 against the spread when its opponents make more than 45.1% of their shots from the field.
  • The Mean Green’s 48.2% shooting percentage from the field this season is 6.8 percentage points higher than the Boilermakers have allowed to their opponents (41.4%).
  • North Texas has compiled a 12-4 record against the spread and a 13-4 record overall in games when it shoots over 41.4% from the field.
  • Purdue is 14-8-1 against the spread and 18-7 overall in games its opponents shoot above 48.2% from the field.
  • The Boilermakers are hitting 33.4% of their three-point shots this season, 1% higher than the 32.4% the Mean Green allow opponents to shoot from deep.
  • Purdue has put together a 10-3 straight-up record and a 6-5-1 record against the spread in games when the team knocks down more than 32.4% of its three-point attempts this season.
  • North Texas is 10-3 against the spread and 9-5 overall when its opponents make more than 33.4% of their shots from deep.
  • The Mean Green are making 38.4% of their shots from deep, which is 6.9 percentage points higher than the 31.5% the Boilermakers’ are averaging on the season.
  • North Texas is 13-3 overall and 12-3 against the spread when it shoots better than 31.5% as a team from three-point distance.
  • Purdue has a 15-7 straight-up record and an 11-8-1 ATS record this season when it makes more than 38.4% of its three-point shots.
  • The Boilermakers knock down 7.1 three-pointers per game this season, 1.4 fewer made shots on average than the 8.5 per game the Mean Green allow.
  • When North Texas makes more three-pointers than its opponents, it is 12-2 against the spread and 11-5 overall. When Purdue is out-shot from beyond the arc by its opponents, it is 7-7 ATS and 10-7 straight up.

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