San Diego State vs. Syracuse Picks & Best Bets — March Madness 2021

Posted By PlayPicks Staff on March 16, 2021 - Last Updated on March 17, 2021

The No. 6 San Diego State Aztecs (23-4) are 2.5-point favorites to advance to the second round of the NCAA Tournament when they meet the No. 11 Syracuse Orange (16-9) on Friday, beginning at 9:40 PM ET on CBS. Here’s everything you need to know about this 6-11 matchup before filling out your bracket.

The betting insights and predictions in this article reflect betting data from DraftKings as of March 15, 2021, 4:10 PM ET. See table below for current betting odds and CLICK HERE to bet at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Best Betting Odds

Computer Picks

Pick ATS:
Aztecs (-2.5)

The model projects the Aztecs to win, just as DraftKings does, but the model favors them by a small margin more (3.4 to 2.5).

Pick OU:
Over (139.5)

The model predicts a total 1.3 points higher than the one set by DraftKings for this matchup.

Prediction: San Diego State 72, Syracuse 69

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm (raw power score) that ranks head-to-head matchup results within a closed network of games. Prediction confidence is determined by the delta between each team’s raw power score.

Examining the Over/Under

  • The Aztecs’ average implied point total this season is 1.9 more points than their implied total in Friday’s game (72.9 implied points on average compared to 71 implied points in this game).
  • San Diego State has outscored this matchup’s implied point total (71) 16 times.
  • The average implied point total on the season for the Orange (75.8) is 6.8 more points than the team’s implied total in this matchup (69).
  • Syracuse will look to outscore its implied point total for this matchup (69) for the 20th time this season.

Implied totals are projected point totals for each team based on totals and spreads set by sportsbooks.

San Diego State and Syracuse Records ATS

ATS Record ATS Record Against 2.5+ Point Spread Over/Under Record (O-U-P)
Aztecs 14-12 11-10 14-12
Orange 10-12 5-7 12-10

Against The Spread (ATS) records are only reflective of games that had odds on them.

Betting Tips – Shooting Stats

  • This season, the Aztecs have a 45.5% shooting percentage from the field, which is 3.9% higher than the 41.6% of shots the Orange’s opponents have made.
  • San Diego State has a 12-4 record against the spread and a 17-0 straight-up record in games it shoots higher than 41.6% from the field.
  • Syracuse’s record is 9-7 against the spread and 15-3 overall when it allows its opponents to hit more than 45.5% of their shots from the field.
  • The Orange’s 44.1% shooting percentage from the field this season is 5.4 percentage points higher than the Aztecs have allowed to their opponents (38.7%).
  • This season, Syracuse has a 9-8 record against the spread and a 14-6 record overall in games the team collectively shoots over 38.7% from the field.
  • When opponents of San Diego State shoot over 44.1% from the field, it is 11-9 against the spread and 18-3 overall.
  • The Aztecs’ 37.5% three-point shooting percentage this season is 5.9 percentage points higher than opponents of the Orange have shot from beyond the arc (31.6%).
  • San Diego State has put together an 18-3 straight-up record and a 12-8 record against the spread in games when the team hits more than 31.6% of its three-point shots this season.
  • Syracuse is 6-9 against the spread and 12-6 overall when its opponents hit more than 37.5% of their shots from deep.
  • The Orange shoot 33.6% from beyond the arc this season. That’s only one percentage point higher than the Aztecs have allowed their opponents to shoot from deep (32.6%).
  • Syracuse’s record is 6-6 ATS and 9-4 overall when the team hits more than 32.6% of its three-point attempts.
  • San Diego State is 10-5 ATS and 14-2 overall in games when shooting over 33.6% from deep.
  • San Diego State is 9-3 against the spread and 11-2 overall when it makes more threes than its opponents, while Syracuse is 4-8 ATS and 8-6 straight up in games when it is out-shot from deep.

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