West Virginia vs. Morehead State Picks & Best Bets — March Madness 2021

Posted By PlayPicks Staff on March 16, 2021 - Last Updated on March 17, 2021

The No. 3 West Virginia Mountaineers (18-9) and the No. 14 Morehead State Eagles (23-7) are poised to meet in their first-round matchup in the NCAA Tournament on Friday, tipping off at 9:50 PM ET on TRU. West Virginia is a 12.5-point favorite in this matchup. Here’s everything you need to know about this Midwest Region matchup as you fill out your brackets.

The betting insights and predictions in this article reflect betting data from DraftKings as of March 15, 2021, 4:10 PM ET. See table below for current betting odds and CLICK HERE to bet at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Best Betting Odds

Computer Picks

Pick ATS:
Eagles (+12.5)

The model line and the DraftKings line are within 0.4 points of each other.

Pick OU:
Over (137.5)

In this matchup, the model projects a total (140.8 points) marginally higher than the DraftKings over/under (137.5 points).

Prediction: West Virginia 76, Morehead State 64

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm (raw power score) that ranks head-to-head matchup results within a closed network of games. Prediction confidence is determined by the delta between each team’s raw power score.

Examining the Over/Under

  • The Mountaineers’ average implied point total this season is 0.6 more points than their implied total in Friday’s game (75.6 implied points on average compared to 75 implied points in this game).
  • West Virginia has scored more than its implied point total for this matchup (75) 16 times this season.
  • The average implied point total on the season for the Eagles (72) is nine more points than the team’s implied total in this matchup (63).
  • Morehead State has scored more than 63 points in 21 games this season.

Implied totals are projected point totals for each team based on totals and spreads set by sportsbooks.

West Virginia and Morehead State Records ATS

ATS Record ATS Record Against 12.5+ Point Spread Over/Under Record (O-U-P)
Mountaineers 13-14 2-3 19-8
Eagles 19-9 0-2 10-18

Against The Spread (ATS) records are only reflective of games that had odds on them.

Betting Tips – Shooting Stats

  • This season, the Mountaineers have a 42.9% shooting percentage from the field, which is 2.4% higher than the 40.5% of shots the Eagles’ opponents have hit.
  • In games when West Virginia shoots better than 40.5% from the field, it is 12-7 against the spread and 14-5 overall.
  • Morehead State is 19-2 overall and 16-3 against the spread when allowing opponents to shoot higher than 42.9% from the field.
  • The Eagles are shooting 46.1% from the field, 1.5% higher than the 44.6% the Mountaineers’ opponents have shot this season.
  • This season, Morehead State has put together a 16-2 record against the spread and an 18-2 record overall in games the team shoots higher than 44.6% collectively from the field.
  • When West Virginia’s opponents hit better than 46.1% from the field, it is 7-9 against the spread and 12-4 overall.
  • The Mountaineers shoot 35.8% from beyond the arc, 5% higher than the 30.8% the Eagles allow to opponents.
  • West Virginia has a 9-7 record against the spread and a 12-4 record overall when the team knocks down more than 30.8% of its shots from three-point distance.
  • Morehead State has put up a 14-5 against the spread while going 18-3 overall in games this season when its opponents shoot better than 35.8% from downtown.
  • The Eagles shoot 35.1% from beyond the arc this season. That’s 2.5 percentage points higher than the Mountaineers have allowed their opponents to shoot from deep (32.6%).
  • Morehead State is 12-3 ATS and 14-3 overall when the team makes more than 32.6% of its three-point attempts.
  • West Virginia has an 11-8 ATS record and a 13-6 straight-up record this season in games it has shot better than 35.1% from three-point range.
  • West Virginia is 10-6 against the spread and 11-5 overall when it makes more three-pointers than its opponents, while Morehead State is 9-7 ATS and 11-5 straight up in games when it is out-shot from distance.

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