Florida State vs. UNC Greensboro Picks & Best Bets — March Madness 2021

Posted By PlayPicks Staff on March 16, 2021 - Last Updated on March 17, 2021

The No. 4 Florida State Seminoles (16-6) and the No. 13 UNC Greensboro Spartans (21-8) are ready to tip off their first-round matchup in the NCAA Tournament on Saturday, tipping off at 12:45 PM ET on TRU. Florida State is a favorite in this game. Here’s everything you need to know about this East Region matchup as you fill out your brackets.

The betting insights and predictions in this article reflect betting data from DraftKings as of March 15, 2021, 4:10 PM ET. See table below for current betting odds and CLICK HERE to bet at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Best Betting Odds

Computer Picks

Pick ATS: Florida State Seminoles (-10.5)

The DraftKings line for this game has the Seminoles favored by 10.5, while the model predicts they’ll win by slightly more (11.2 points).

Pick OU: Under (145.5)

The DraftKings total for this game, 145.5 points, and the model’s projected total, 145.1 points, are only 0.4 points apart.

Prediction: Florida State 78, UNC Greensboro 67

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm (raw power score) that ranks head-to-head matchup results within a closed network of games. Prediction confidence is determined by the delta between each team’s raw power score.

Examining the Over/Under

  • The Seminoles have an average implied point total of 74.5 this season, which is 3.5 points lower than their implied total in Saturday’s game (78).
  • Florida State has surpassed its implied point total for this matchup (78) 12 times this season.
  • The Spartans’ average implied point total on the season (75.6 points) is 7.6 points higher than their implied total in this matchup (68 points).
  • UNC Greensboro has scored more than 68 points 21 times this season.

Implied totals are projected point totals for each team based on totals and spreads set by sportsbooks.

Florida State and UNC Greensboro Records ATS

ATS Record ATS Record Against 10.5+ Point Spread Over/Under Record (O-U-P)
Seminoles 12-9 3-3 14-6-1
Spartans 17-11 4-4 12-15-1

Against The Spread (ATS) records are only reflective of games that had odds on them.

Betting Tips – Shooting Stats

  • The Seminoles are shooting 47.5% from the field this season, 6.1 percentage points higher than the 41.4% the Spartans allow to opponents.
  • In games when Florida State shoots better than 41.4% from the field, it is 12-5 against the spread and 14-4 overall.
  • UNC Greensboro is 15-9 against the spread and 19-6 overall when its opponents shoot higher than 47.5% from the field.
  • The Spartans are shooting 42.4% from the field, 2.6% higher than the 39.8% the Seminoles’ opponents have shot this season.
  • UNC Greensboro is 19-2 overall and 16-5 against the spread when it knocks down more than 39.8% of its attempts from the field.
  • Florida State is 8-4 against the spread and 11-2 overall in games its opponents shoot above 42.4% from the field.
  • The Seminoles are knocking down 38.9% of their three-point shots this season, 7% higher than the 31.9% the Spartans allow opponents to shoot from deep.
  • Florida State has an 11-4 record against the spread and a 13-2 record overall when the team connects on more than 31.9% of its attempts from three-point distance.
  • UNC Greensboro has gone 18-3 overall and has a 14-7 record against the spread in games this season when its opponents shoot better than 38.9% from deep.
  • The Spartans three-point shooting percentage this season (30%) is 3.2 percentage points lower than opponents of the Seminoles are averaging (33.2%).
  • UNC Greensboro’s record is 10-5 ATS and 12-3 overall when the team hits more than 33.2% of its three-point attempts.
  • Florida State has a 6-4 straight-up record and a 4-6 ATS record this season when it makes more than 30% of its three-point attempts.
  • The Seminoles are 7-4 against the spread and 8-3 overall when they make more threes than their opponents, while the Spartans are 3-7 ATS and 5-5 straight up in games when they are out-shot from the three-point line.

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