LSU vs. Saint Bonaventure Picks & Best Bets — March Madness 2021

Posted By PlayPicks Staff on March 16, 2021 - Last Updated on March 17, 2021

The No. 8 seed in the East Region bracket, the LSU Tigers (18-9), and the No. 9 seed Saint Bonaventure Bonnies (16-4) square off in the opening round of the NCAA Tournament on Saturday, starting at 1:45 PM ET. LSU is a favorite in the matchup, which airs on TNT.

The betting insights and predictions in this article reflect betting data from DraftKings as of March 15, 2021, 4:10 PM ET. See table below for current betting odds and CLICK HERE to bet at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Best Betting Odds

Computer Picks

Pick ATS: St. Bonaventure Bonnies (+1.5)

While DraftKings has the Tigers winning by 1.5, the model has the Bonnies taking home the victory, with a considerable margin between the two spreads (3.2 points). Take the Bonnies.

Pick OU: Under (144.5)

The DraftKings total for this game, 144.5 points, and the model’s projected total, 144.1 points, are only 0.4 points apart.

Prediction: Saint Bonaventure 73, LSU 71

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm (raw power score) that ranks head-to-head matchup results within a closed network of games. Prediction confidence is determined by the delta between each team’s raw power score.

Examining the Over/Under

  • The Tigers’ average implied point total this season is 7.9 more points than their implied total in Saturday’s game (80.9 implied points on average compared to 73 implied points in this game).
  • LSU will look to outscore its implied point total for this matchup (73) for the 24th time this season.
  • The Bonnies’ average implied point total on the season (71.6 points) is 0.4 points lower than their implied total in this matchup (72 points).
  • Saint Bonaventure has put up more than 72 points in eight games on the season.

Implied totals are projected point totals for each team based on totals and spreads set by sportsbooks.

LSU and Saint Bonaventure Records ATS

ATS Record ATS Record Against 1.5+ Point Spread Over/Under Record (O-U-P)
Tigers 14-13 7-6 17-10
Bonnies 13-5-2 10-3-1 6-14

Against The Spread (ATS) records are only reflective of games that had odds on them.

Betting Tips – Shooting Stats

  • This season, the Tigers have a 46.3% shooting percentage from the field, which is 7.4% higher than the 38.9% of shots the Bonnies’ opponents have knocked down.
  • LSU is 14-9 against the spread and 18-5 overall when it shoots higher than 38.9% from the field.
  • Saint Bonaventure is 16-3 overall and 13-4-2 against the spread when allowing its opponents to shoot higher than 46.3% from the field.
  • The Bonnies’ 44.8% shooting percentage from the field this season is 2.9 percentage points higher than the Tigers have allowed to their opponents (41.9%).
  • Saint Bonaventure has compiled a 10-1-2 record against the spread and a 12-1 straight up record in games it shoots over 41.9% from the field.
  • This season, LSU has a 13-4 straight up record and a 13-4 record against the spread when it allows opponents to shoot higher than 44.8% from the field.
  • The Tigers’ 34.8% three-point shooting percentage this season is 4.1 percentage points higher than opponents of the Bonnies have shot from beyond the arc (30.7%).
  • LSU is 13-8 against the spread and 16-5 overall when it shoots better than 30.7% from distance.
  • Saint Bonaventure has gone 12-2 overall and has a 10-3-1 record against the spread in games this season when its opponents shoot higher than 34.8% from downtown.
  • The Bonnies are hitting 35.9% of their shots from deep, which is 5.9 percentage points higher than the 30% the Tigers’ are averaging on the season.
  • Saint Bonaventure has an 8-3-1 ATS record and is 10-2 straight-up when the team makes more than 30% of its three-point attempts.
  • LSU has a 13-10 ATS record and a 16-7 straight-up record in games this season when it connects on more than 35.9% of its three-point attempts.
  • LSU is 8-3 against the spread and 8-3 overall when it makes more three-pointers than its opponents, while Saint Bonaventure is 6-3-2 ATS and 9-2 straight up in games when it is out-shot from distance.

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