Creighton vs. UCSB Picks & Best Bets — March Madness 2021

Posted By PlayPicks Staff on March 17, 2021

The No. 12 UCSB Gauchos (22-4) are underdogs to advance to the second round of the NCAA Tournament when they play the No. 5 Creighton Bluejays (20-8) on Saturday. Here are some insights into this 5-12 matchup in the West Region bracket that tips off at 3:30 PM ET, live on TRU

The betting insights and predictions in this article reflect betting data from DraftKings as of March 15, 2021, 4:10 PM ET. See table below for current betting odds and CLICK HERE to bet at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Best Betting Odds

Computer Picks

Pick ATS: Creighton Bluejays (-6.5)

The line for this game set by DraftKings and the model’s prediction are essentially the same (within 0.2 points of each other).

Pick OU: Over (137.5)

In this matchup, the model projects a total (141.4 points) a little higher than the DraftKings over/under (137.5 points).

Prediction: Creighton 74, UCSB 67

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm (raw power score) that ranks head-to-head matchup results within a closed network of games. Prediction confidence is determined by the delta between each team’s raw power score.

Examining the Over/Under

  • The Bluejays’ average implied point total this season is six more points than their implied total in Saturday’s game (78 implied points on average compared to 72 implied points in this game).
  • Creighton will aim to surpass its implied point total for this matchup (72) for the 16th time this season.
  • The average implied point total on the season for the Gauchos (72.8) is 6.8 more points than the team’s implied total in this matchup (66).
  • UCSB will attempt to surpass its implied point total for this matchup (66) for the 21st time this season.

Implied totals are projected point totals for each team based on totals and spreads set by sportsbooks.

Creighton and UCSB Records ATS

ATS Record ATS Record Against 6.5+ Point Spread Over/Under Record (O-U-P)
Bluejays 11-14 8-9 11-14
Gauchos 11-9 6-6 10-10

Against The Spread (ATS) records are only reflective of games that had odds on them.

Betting Tips – Shooting Stats

  • The Bluejays are shooting 47.6% from the field this season, six percentage points higher than the 41.6% the Gauchos allow to opponents.
  • In games when Creighton shoots higher than 41.6% from the field, it is 10-9 against the spread and 16-6 overall.
  • UCSB is 10-4 against the spread and 18-2 overall when allowing opponents to shoot higher than 47.6% from the field.
  • The Gauchos’ 47.9% shooting percentage from the field this season is 7.4 percentage points higher than the Bluejays have allowed to their opponents (40.5%).
  • UCSB is 19-1 overall and 10-6 against the spread when it hits more than 40.5% of its shots from the field.
  • Creighton is 11-10 against the spread and 19-4 overall in games its opponents shoot higher than 47.9% from the field.
  • The Bluejays’ 36.6% three-point shooting percentage this season is 4.1 percentage points higher than opponents of the Gauchos have shot from deep (32.5%).
  • Creighton has a 9-5 record against the spread and a 12-4 record overall when the team connects on more than 32.5% of its shots from three-point range.
  • UCSB has gone 16-0 overall and has an 11-1 record against the spread in games this season when its opponents shoot better than 36.6% from downtown.
  • The Gauchos are knocking down 34.6% of their shots from deep, which is 2.6 percentage points higher than the 32% the Bluejays’ are averaging on the season.
  • UCSB is 8-6 against the spread and 14-2 overall when it shoots above 32% as a team from deep.
  • Creighton has a 7-10 ATS record and a 15-4 straight-up record in games this season when it hits more than 34.6% of its three-point attempts.
  • The Bluejays’ 9.7 made three-pointers per game this season is 2.9 more made shots on average than the 6.8 per game the Gauchos allow.
  • Creighton has gone 9-5 against the spread and 14-3 overall this season in games it has out-shot its opponents from the three-point line. When UCSB makes fewer three-pointers than its opponents, it is 2-3 ATS and 7-1 straight up.

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