The No. 2 seed Alabama Crimson Tide (24-6) are heavily favored () to beat the No. 15 seed Iona Gaels (12-5) in the opening round of the NCAA Tournament on Saturday. The matchup begins at 4:00 PM ET on TBS. Here are some insights into this East Region contest for those filling out their brackets.
The betting insights and predictions in this article reflect betting data from DraftKings as of March 15, 2021, 4:10 PM ET. See table below for current betting odds and CLICK HERE to bet at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Best Betting Odds
Pick ATS: Iona Gaels (+16.5)
The line for this game set by DraftKings and the model’s prediction are essentially the same (within 0.4 points of each other).
Pick OU: Under (146)
The model predicts a total 2.2 points lower than the one set by DraftKings for this game.
Prediction: Alabama 80, Iona 64
Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm (raw power score) that ranks head-to-head matchup results within a closed network of games. Prediction confidence is determined by the delta between each team’s raw power score.
Examining the Over/Under
- The Crimson Tide have an average implied point total of 79.8 this season, which is 1.2 points lower than their implied total in Saturday’s game (81).
- Alabama has outscored its implied point total for this matchup (81) 17 times this season.
- The 73.1-point average implied total on the season for the Gaels is 8.1 more points than the team’s 65-point implied total in this matchup.
- Iona has scored more than 65 points in 13 games this season.
Implied totals are projected point totals for each team based on totals and spreads set by sportsbooks.
Alabama and Iona Records ATS
|ATS Record||ATS Record Against 16.5+ Point Spread||Over/Under Record (O-U-P)|
Against The Spread (ATS) records are only reflective of games that had odds on them.
Betting Tips – Shooting Stats
- The Crimson Tide make 43% of their shots from the field this season, which is 3.1 percentage points higher than the Gaels have allowed to their opponents (39.9%).
- In games Alabama shoots higher than 39.9% from the field, it is 12-4-1 against the spread and 18-0 overall.
- Iona is 10-2 overall and 3-2 against the spread when allowing opponents to shoot better than 43% from the field.
- The Gaels are shooting 44.8% from the field, 4.3% higher than the 40.5% the Crimson Tide’s opponents have shot this season.
- Iona has compiled an 11-4 straight up record and a 4-3 record against the spread in games it shoots better than 40.5% from the field.
- When opponents of Alabama shoot over 44.8% from the field, it is 14-6 against the spread and 20-1 overall.
- The Crimson Tide’s 35% three-point shooting percentage this season is 4.9 percentage points higher than opponents of the Gaels have shot from deep (30.1%).
- Alabama is 11-7-1 against the spread and 17-3 overall when it shoots better than 30.1% from distance.
- Iona has put together an 11-2 straight-up record and gone 3-1 against the spread in games when its opponents shoot over 35% from downtown.
- The Gaels shoot 35.5% from beyond the arc this season. That’s 6.7 percentage points higher than the Crimson Tide have allowed their opponents to shoot from deep (28.8%).
- Iona is 4-1 against the spread and 9-2 overall when shooting over 28.8% as a team from three-point range.
- Alabama has an 11-7-1 ATS record and a 16-4 straight-up record in games this season it has shot better than 35.5% from deep.
- The Crimson Tide make 10.7 three-pointers per game this season, 3.2 more makes per game than the Gaels give up (7.5).
- When Alabama makes more three-pointers than its opponents, it is 12-8-1 against the spread and 18-4 overall. When Iona is out-shot from deep by its opponents, it is 0-3 ATS and 2-3 straight up.
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