Iowa vs. Grand Canyon Picks & Best Bets — March Madness 2021

Posted By PlayPicks Staff on March 18, 2021

A first-round NCAA Tournament matchup will see the 2-seed Iowa Hawkeyes (21-8) hit the court as a favorite against the No. 15 seed Grand Canyon Antelopes (17-6) on Saturday. The contest tips off at 6:25 PM ET on TBS. Here’s what you need to know about this 2-15 matchup before filling out your brackets.

The betting insights and predictions in this article reflect betting data from DraftKings as of March 15, 2021, 4:10 PM ET. See table below for current betting odds and CLICK HERE to bet at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Best Betting Odds

Computer Picks

Pick ATS: Grand Canyon Antelopes (+15)

The model and DraftKings both have the Hawkeyes taking home the victory, but the model has them winning by slightly less (12.7 points). Lean towards taking the Antelopes.

Pick OU: Under (145)

DraftKings and the model are extremely close in their point total projections for this contest, within 0.7 points of each other.

Prediction: Iowa 78, Grand Canyon 66

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm (raw power score) that ranks head-to-head matchup results within a closed network of games. Prediction confidence is determined by the delta between each team’s raw power score.

Examining the Over/Under

  • The Hawkeyes’ average implied point total this season is 2.2 more points than their implied total in Saturday’s game (82.2 implied points on average compared to 80 implied points in this game).
  • Iowa has scored more than its implied point total in this matchup (80) 16 times this season.
  • The 73.9-point average implied total on the season for the Antelopes is 8.9 more points than the team’s 65-point implied total in this matchup.
  • Grand Canyon has scored more than this game’s implied total of 65 points 18 times this season.

Implied totals are projected point totals for each team based on totals and spreads set by sportsbooks.

Iowa and Grand Canyon Records ATS

ATS Record ATS Record Against 15+ Point Spread Over/Under Record (O-U-P)
Hawkeyes 14-12 3-1 13-13
Antelopes 13-5-1 1-0 5-14

Against The Spread (ATS) records are only reflective of games that had odds on them.

Betting Tips – Shooting Stats

  • The Hawkeyes are shooting 46.9% from the field this season, 9.3 percentage points higher than the 37.6% the Antelopes allow to opponents.
  • Iowa has gone 21-4 overall and 14-8 against the spread when it shoots higher than 37.6% from the field.
  • Grand Canyon is 17-4 overall and 12-5 against the spread when allowing its opponents to shoot better than 46.9% from the field.
  • The Antelopes are shooting 49.4% from the field, 7.9% higher than the 41.5% the Hawkeyes’ opponents have shot this season.
  • Grand Canyon is 16-3 overall and 12-2-1 against the spread when it knocks down more than 41.5% of its attempts from the field.
  • This season, Iowa has a 14-9 record against the spread and a 21-5 straight up record when it allows opponents to shoot over 49.4% from the field.
  • The Hawkeyes’ 38.5% three-point shooting percentage this season is 9.6 percentage points higher than opponents of the Antelopes have shot from beyond the arc (28.9%).
  • Iowa has a 13-10 record against the spread and a 20-6 record overall when the team connects on more than 28.9% of its attempts from three-point distance.
  • Grand Canyon is 13-4 against the spread and 17-4 overall when its opponents make more than 38.5% of their shots from deep.
  • The Antelopes’ three-point shooting percentage this season (33.3%) is just 1.5 percentage points lower than opponents of the Hawkeyes are averaging (34.8%).
  • Grand Canyon is 5-2 ATS and 8-1 overall when the team hits more than 34.8% of its three-point attempts.
  • Iowa has an 8-4 ATS record and a 12-2 straight-up record in games this season it has shot better than 33.3% from deep.
  • The Hawkeyes’ 9.8 made three-pointers per game this season is 3.0 more made shots on average than the 6.8 per game the Antelopes allow.
  • When Iowa makes more three-pointers than its opponents, it is 9-4 against the spread and 12-3 overall. When Grand Canyon is out-shot from deep by its opponents, it is 6-1-1 ATS and 7-3 straight up.

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