UConn vs. Maryland Picks & Best Bets — March Madness 2021

Posted By PlayPicks Staff on March 16, 2021 - Last Updated on March 17, 2021

A first-round NCAA Tournament matchup will see the 10th-seeded Maryland Terrapins (16-13) play as underdogs against the No. 7 seed UConn Huskies (15-7) on Saturday. The contest tips off at 7:10 PM ET on CBS. Here’s what you need to know when filling out your brackets for this 7-10 matchup.

The betting insights and predictions in this article reflect betting data from DraftKings as of March 15, 2021, 4:10 PM ET. See table below for current betting odds and CLICK HERE to bet at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Best Betting Odds

Computer Picks

Pick ATS: Maryland Terrapins (+2.5)

The line for this game set by DraftKings and the model’s prediction are essentially the same (within 0.2 points of each other).

Pick OU: Over (129.5)

In this matchup, the model projects a total (135.0 points) higher than the DraftKings over/under (129.5 points).

Prediction: UConn 69, Maryland 66

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm (raw power score) that ranks head-to-head matchup results within a closed network of games. Prediction confidence is determined by the delta between each team’s raw power score.

Examining the Over/Under

  • The Huskies’ average implied point total this season is 6.7 more points than their implied total in Saturday’s game (72.7 implied points on average compared to 66 implied points in this game).
  • This season, UConn has outscored its implied point total for this matchup (66) 15 times.
  • The Terrapins’ average implied point total on the season (72 points) is eight points higher than their implied total in this matchup (64 points).
  • Maryland is aiming to outscore its implied point total for this matchup (64) for the 19th time this season.

Implied totals are projected point totals for each team based on totals and spreads set by sportsbooks.

UConn and Maryland Records ATS

ATS Record ATS Record Against 2.5+ Point Spread Over/Under Record (O-U-P)
Huskies 14-5 9-3 10-9
Terrapins 9-15 4-6 10-13-1

Against The Spread (ATS) records are only reflective of games that had odds on them.

Betting Tips – Shooting Stats

  • The Huskies make 43.9% of their shots from the field this season, which is 2.9 percentage points higher than the Terrapins have allowed to their opponents (41%).
  • UConn has amassed an 11-1 record against the spread and a 13-1 straight-up record in games it shoots higher than 41% from the field.
  • Maryland has gone 8-8 against the spread and 15-5 overall in games it allows its opponents to shoot higher than 43.9% from the field.
  • The Terrapins have shot at a 45.6% rate from the field this season, 4.6 percentage points above the 41% shooting opponents of the Huskies have averaged.
  • Maryland is 7-10 against the spread and 14-7 overall when it shoots higher than 41% from the field.
  • When opponents of UConn shoot over 45.6% from the field, it is 10-4 against the spread and 12-4 overall.
  • The Huskies’ 33.5% three-point shooting percentage this season is just 0.5 percentage points lower than opponents of the Terrapins have shot from beyond the arc (34%).
  • UConn has an 8-1 record against the spread and a 9-1 record overall when the team hits more than 34% of its three-point shots.
  • Maryland is 12-3 overall and 7-4 against the spread when its opponents shoot better than 33.5% from deep.
  • The Terrapins are hitting 35.3% of their shots from beyond the arc, which is 3.8 percentage points higher than the 31.5% the Huskies’ are averaging on the season.
  • Maryland has a 7-8 ATS record and is 12-6 straight-up in games when the team hits better than 31.5% of its three-point attempts.
  • UConn has a 10-4 ATS record and an 11-5 straight-up record in games this season it has shot better than 35.3% from deep.
  • The Huskies’ 6.7 made three-pointers per game this season is 1.4 fewer made shots on average than the 8.1 per game the Terrapins give up.
  • Maryland is 7-3 against the spread and 11-2 overall when it connects on more threes than its opponents, while UConn is 1-2 ATS and 2-3 straight up in games when it is out-shot from distance.

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