Virginia vs. Ohio Picks & Best Bets — March Madness 2021

Posted By PlayPicks Staff on March 17, 2021

The No. 4 seed Virginia Cavaliers (18-6) are a favorite in the opening round of the NCAA Tournament against the No. 13 seed Ohio Bobcats (16-7) on Saturday. The contest starts at 7:15 PM ET on TRU. Here are insights into this West Region 4-13 matchup to help you fill out your bracket.

The betting insights and predictions in this article reflect betting data from DraftKings as of March 15, 2021, 4:10 PM ET. See table below for current betting odds and CLICK HERE to bet at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Best Betting Odds

Computer Picks

Pick ATS: Ohio Bobcats (+7.5)

The line for this game set by DraftKings and the model’s prediction are essentially the same (within 0.2 points of each other).

Pick OU: Over (131.5)

The model projects a total (141.4 points) much higher than the one set by DraftKings for this game (131.5 points).

Prediction: Virginia 74, Ohio 67

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm (raw power score) that ranks head-to-head matchup results within a closed network of games. Prediction confidence is determined by the delta between each team’s raw power score.

Examining the Over/Under

  • The Cavaliers have an average implied point total of 68 this season, which is two points lower than their implied total in Saturday’s game (70).
  • Virginia has scored more than its implied point total in this matchup (70) 11 times this season.
  • The Bobcats’ average implied point total on the season (78.1 points) is 16.1 points higher than their implied total in this matchup (62 points).
  • Ohio has scored more than this game’s implied total of 62 points 23 times this season.

Implied totals are projected point totals for each team based on totals and spreads set by sportsbooks.

Virginia and Ohio Records ATS

ATS Record ATS Record Against 7.5+ Point Spread Over/Under Record (O-U-P)
Cavaliers 12-11 6-6 13-10
Bobcats 13-7 5-1 11-9

Against The Spread (ATS) records are only reflective of games that had odds on them.

Betting Tips – Shooting Stats

  • The Cavaliers make 48% of their shots from the field this season, which is 3.6 percentage points higher than the Bobcats have allowed to their opponents (44.4%).
  • Virginia is 11-7 against the spread and 16-3 overall in games when it collectively shoots higher than 44.4% from the field.
  • Ohio is 12-2 against the spread and 16-1 overall in games it allows its opponents to shoot higher than 48% from the field.
  • The Bobcats’ 48.9% shooting percentage from the field this season is 7.1 percentage points higher than the Cavaliers have given up to their opponents (41.8%).
  • This season, Ohio has a 13-4 record against the spread and a 16-4 record overall in games the team collectively shoots better than 41.8% from the field.
  • Virginia is 12-6 against the spread and 17-2 overall in games its opponents shoot greater than 48.9% from the field.
  • The Cavaliers’ 38.1% three-point shooting percentage this season is 4.2 percentage points higher than opponents of the Bobcats have shot from deep (33.9%).
  • Virginia is 7-7 against the spread and 11-4 overall when it shoots better than 33.9% from distance.
  • Ohio has put together a 12-3 against the spread while going 13-3 overall in games this season when its opponents shoot better than 38.1% from deep.
  • The Bobcats shoot 36.1% from three-point distance this season. That’s just 1.9 percentage points higher than the Cavaliers have allowed their opponents to shoot from deep (34.2%).
  • Ohio is 9-4 against the spread and 10-4 overall when shooting over 34.2% as a team from three-point range.
  • Virginia has a 10-2 ATS record and a 13-0 straight-up record in games this season it has shot better than 36.1% from deep.

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