Oklahoma vs. Missouri Picks & Best Bets — March Madness 2021

Posted By PlayPicks Staff on March 17, 2021

The No. 8 Oklahoma Sooners (15-10) are favorites to advance to the second round of the NCAA Tournament when they meet the No. 9 Missouri Tigers (16-9) on Saturday, tipping off at 7:25 PM ET on TNT. Here’s everything you need to know about this 8-9 matchup before filling out your bracket.

The betting insights and predictions in this article reflect betting data from DraftKings as of March 15, 2021, 4:10 PM ET. See table below for current betting odds and CLICK HERE to bet at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Best Betting Odds

Computer Picks

Pick ATS: Missouri Tigers (+2)

The spread for this matchup suggested by the model (1.0 point) is a little bit less than the 2-point edge DraftKings gives to the Sooners, though the data still has them as the favorite.

Pick OU: Over (141)

The DraftKings point total for this matchup is 3.8 points lower than the model projection.

Prediction: Oklahoma 73, Missouri 72

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm (raw power score) that ranks head-to-head matchup results within a closed network of games. Prediction confidence is determined by the delta between each team’s raw power score.

Examining the Over/Under

  • The average implied total for the Sooners this season is 76.7 points, 4.7 more points than their implied total of 72 points in Saturday’s game.
  • This season, Oklahoma has outscored its implied point total for this matchup (72) 16 times.
  • The average implied point total on the season for the Tigers (74.1) is 4.1 more points than the team’s implied total in this matchup (70).
  • Missouri has scored more than 70 points 16 times on the season.

Implied totals are projected point totals for each team based on totals and spreads set by sportsbooks.

Oklahoma and Missouri Records ATS

ATS Record ATS Record Against 2+ Point Spread Over/Under Record (O-U-P)
Sooners 12-13 4-11 11-14
Tigers 12-13 7-8 14-11

Against The Spread (ATS) records are only reflective of games that had odds on them.

Betting Tips – Shooting Stats

  • The Sooners make 44.2% of their shots from the field this season, which is 1.1 percentage points higher than the Tigers have allowed to their opponents (43.1%).
  • Oklahoma has a 6-7 record against the spread and a 10-3 straight-up record in games it shoots better than 43.1% from the field.
  • Missouri is 12-2 overall and 9-5 against the spread when allowing its opponents to shoot higher than 44.2% from the field.
  • The Tigers are shooting 45% from the field, 2.7% higher than the 42.3% the Sooners’ opponents have shot this season.
  • Missouri is 14-5 overall and 11-8 against the spread when it shoots better than 42.3% from the field.
  • When Oklahoma’s opponents shoot greater than 45% from the field, it is 8-7 against the spread and 13-2 overall.
  • The Sooners shoot 33.6% from deep, 1.2% higher than the 32.4% the Tigers allow to opponents.
  • Oklahoma has collected an 8-7 record against the spread and an 11-4 straight-up record in games this season when the team hits more than 32.4% of its three-point attempts.
  • Missouri is 9-6 against the spread and 11-4 overall when its opponents make more than 33.6% of their shots from deep.
  • The Tigers are knocking down 32.2% of their shots from three-point range, which is 3.2 percentage points fewer than the 35.4% the Sooners’ are averaging on the season.
  • Missouri is 6-3 against the spread and 7-2 overall when shooting over 35.4% as a team from three-point range.
  • Oklahoma has a 7-4 ATS record and an 8-3 straight-up record this season in games it has shot better than 32.2% from three-point distance.
  • The Sooners make 8 three-pointers per game this season, 1.1 more made shots on average than the 6.9 per game the Tigers give up.
  • Oklahoma is 8-4 against the spread and 7-5 overall when it connects on more three-pointers than its opponents, while Missouri is 5-4 ATS and 7-2 straight up in games when it is out-shot from deep.

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