Texas vs. Abilene Christian Picks & Best Bets — March Madness 2021

Posted By PlayPicks Staff on March 16, 2021 - Last Updated on March 17, 2021

The No. 14 Abilene Christian Wildcats (23-4) are 9-point underdogs to advance to the second round of the NCAA Tournament when they face off against the No. 3 Texas Longhorns (19-7) on Saturday. Here are some insights into this 3-14 matchup in the East Region bracket that starts at 9:50 PM ET, live on TRU

The betting insights and predictions in this article reflect betting data from DraftKings as of March 15, 2021, 4:10 PM ET. See table below for current betting odds and CLICK HERE to bet at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Best Betting Odds

Computer Picks

Pick ATS:
Wildcats (+9)

The model favors the Longhorns by 5.9 points, a much smaller margin than the 9-point spread set by DraftKings. Take the Wildcats to cover.

Pick OU:
Over (139.5)

In this matchup, the model projects a total (141.0 points) marginally higher than the DraftKings over/under (139.5 points).

Prediction: Texas 73, Abilene Christian 68

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm (raw power score) that ranks head-to-head matchup results within a closed network of games. Prediction confidence is determined by the delta between each team’s raw power score.

Examining the Over/Under

  • The average implied total for the Longhorns this season is 73.4 points, 0.6 fewer points than their implied total of 74 points in Saturday’s game.
  • Texas will look to surpass its implied point total for this matchup (74) for the 16th time this season.
  • The 75.3-point average implied total on the season for the Wildcats is 10.3 more points than the team’s 65-point implied total in this matchup.
  • Abilene Christian has scored more than 65 points 24 times on the season.

Implied totals are projected point totals for each team based on totals and spreads set by sportsbooks.

Texas and Abilene Christian Records ATS

ATS Record ATS Record Against 9+ Point Spread Over/Under Record (O-U-P)
Longhorns 12-14 4-4 16-10
Wildcats 17-6 10-4 14-9

Against The Spread (ATS) records are only reflective of games that had odds on them.

Betting Tips – Shooting Stats

  • The Longhorns make 45.9% of their shots from the field this season, which is 5.9 percentage points higher than the Wildcats have allowed to their opponents (40%).
  • Texas has a 16-4 straight-up record and an 11-9 record against the spread in games it shoots better than 40% from the field.
  • Abilene Christian is 14-4 against the spread and 18-3 overall when its opponents shoot better than 45.9% from the field.
  • The Wildcats are shooting 46% from the field, 4.7% higher than the 41.3% the Longhorns’ opponents have shot this season.
  • Abilene Christian is 14-5 against the spread and 21-2 overall when shooting better than 41.3% from the field.
  • Texas is 14-6 overall and 10-10 against the spread in games it allows opponents to shoot higher than 46% from the field.
  • The Longhorns’ 36.2% three-point shooting percentage this season is 5.8 percentage points higher than opponents of the Wildcats have shot from beyond the arc (30.4%).
  • Texas is 15-5 overall and 10-10 against the spread when it shoots better than 30.4% from distance.
  • Abilene Christian is 16-3 overall and 14-3 against the spread when its opponents shoot higher than 36.2% from deep.
  • The Wildcats are hitting 35.3% of their shots from three-point distance, which is 2.9 percentage points higher than the 32.4% the Longhorns’ are averaging on the season.
  • Abilene Christian has a 14-2 ATS record and is 14-2 straight-up in games when the team hits better than 32.4% of its three-point attempts.
  • Texas is 10-7 ATS and 14-3 overall in games it shoots over 35.3% from deep.
  • The Longhorns make 9.6 three-pointers per game this season, 1.7 more makes per game than the Wildcats give up (7.9).
  • Texas has gone 11-11 against the spread and 17-5 overall this season in games it has out-shot its opponents from the three-point line. When Abilene Christian hits fewer three-pointers than its opponents, it is 0-4 ATS and 4-2 straight up.

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