Oregon vs. VCU Picks & Best Bets — March Madness 2021

Posted By PlayPicks Staff on March 18, 2021 - Last Updated on March 20, 2021

The No. 10 VCU Rams (19-7) are 5.5-point underdogs to advance to the second round of the NCAA Tournament when they take on the No. 7 Oregon Ducks (20-6) on Saturday. Here are some insights into this 7-10 matchup in the West Region bracket that begins at 9:57 PM ET, live on TNT

The betting insights and predictions in this article reflect betting data from DraftKings as of March 15, 2021, 4:10 PM ET. See table below for current betting odds and CLICK HERE to bet at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Best Betting Odds

Computer Picks

Pick ATS:
Rams (+5.5)

The model favors the Ducks by 1.7 points, a much smaller margin than the 5.5-point spread set by DraftKings. Take the Rams to cover.

Pick OU:
Over (137)

The DraftKings point total for this matchup is just 2.3 points lower than the model projection.

Prediction: Oregon 70, VCU 69

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm (raw power score) that ranks head-to-head matchup results within a closed network of games. Prediction confidence is determined by the delta between each team’s raw power score.

Examining the Over/Under

  • The Ducks have an average implied point total of 74.2 this season, which is 3.2 points higher than their implied total in Saturday’s game (71).
  • Oregon has surpassed its implied point total for this matchup (71) 19 times this season.
  • The average implied point total on the season for the Rams (73.2) is 7.2 more points than the team’s implied total in this matchup (66).
  • VCU will try to outscore its implied point total for this matchup (66) for the 20th time this season.

Implied totals are projected point totals for each team based on totals and spreads set by sportsbooks.

Oregon and VCU Records ATS

ATS Record ATS Record Against 5.5+ Point Spread Over/Under Record (O-U-P)
Ducks 14-11 8-8 16-9
Rams 13-11-1 6-6 10-15

Against The Spread (ATS) records are only reflective of games that had odds on them.

Betting Tips – Shooting Stats

  • This season, the Ducks have a 47.2% shooting percentage from the field, which is 7% higher than the 40.2% of shots the Rams’ opponents have made.
  • In games Oregon shoots higher than 40.2% from the field, it is 14-9 against the spread and 19-5 overall.
  • VCU’s record is 12-9-1 against the spread and 18-5 overall when its opponents make more than 47.2% of their shots from the field.
  • The Rams have shot at a 45.1% rate from the field this season, 1.4 percentage points above the 43.7% shooting opponents of the Ducks have averaged.
  • VCU has put together a 10-5 record against the spread and a 14-2 record overall in games when it shoots over 43.7% from the field.
  • When Oregon’s opponents shoot greater than 45.1% from the field, it is 8-4 against the spread and 11-1 overall.
  • The Ducks are hitting 37.9% of their three-point shots this season, 7.5% higher than the 30.4% the Rams allow opponents to shoot from deep.
  • Oregon has assembled a 12-6 record against the spread and a 16-3 straight-up record in games this season when the team hits more than 30.4% of its three-point attempts.
  • VCU has gone 16-5 overall and has an 11-8-1 record against the spread in games this season when its opponents shoot higher than 37.9% from downtown.
  • The Rams are making 33.1% of their shots from three-point range, which is just 0.5 percentage points fewer than the 33.6% the Ducks’ opponents are averaging on the season.
  • VCU is 9-3 straight-up and has an 8-3 ATS record when the team makes more than 33.6% of its three-point attempts.
  • Oregon is 8-3 overall and 6-5 ATS in games it shoots over 33.1% from deep.
  • The Ducks connect on 8.4 three-pointers per game this season, 1.9 more made shots on average than the 6.5 per game the Rams give up.
  • Oregon has gone 9-5 against the spread and 13-1 overall this season in games it has out-shot its opponents from the three-point line. When VCU hits fewer three-pointers than its opponents, it is 3-7 ATS and 5-5 straight up.

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