Appalachian State vs. Norfolk State Picks & Best Bets — March Madness 2021

Posted By PlayPicks Staff on March 15, 2021 - Last Updated on March 17, 2021

The Appalachian State Mountaineers (17-11) are favored by three points over the Norfolk State Spartans (16-7) in a First Four matchup on Thursday. A spot in the Round of 64 of the NCAA Tournament bracket will be awarded to the winner of the game, which starts at 8:40 PM ET.

The betting insights and predictions in this article reflect betting data from DraftKings as of March 15, 2021, 10:10 AM ET. See table below for current betting odds and CLICK HERE to bet at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Best Betting Odds

Computer Picks

Pick ATS:
Spartans (+3)

The model and DraftKings both have the Mountaineers taking home the victory, but the model has them winning by slightly less (1.6 points). Lean towards taking the Spartans.

Pick OU:
Over (135.5)

The DraftKings point total for this matchup is just 5.6 points lower than the model projection.

Prediction: Appalachian State 71, Norfolk State 70

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm (raw power score) that ranks head-to-head matchup results within a closed network of games. Prediction confidence is determined by the delta between each team’s raw power score.

Examining the Over/Under

  • The average implied total for the Mountaineers this season is 70.2 points, 1.2 more points than their implied total of 69 points in Thursday’s game.
  • Appalachian State has outscored this matchup’s implied point total (69) 15 times.
  • The Spartans’ average implied point total on the season (75.4 points) is 9.4 points higher than their implied total in this matchup (66 points).
  • Norfolk State has scored more than 66 points in 20 games this season.

Implied totals are projected point totals for each team based on totals and spreads set by sportsbooks.

Appalachian State and Norfolk State Records ATS

ATS Record ATS Record Against 3+ Point Spread Over/Under Record (O-U-P)
Mountaineers 14-9-1 3-4 11-13
Spartans 12-7-1 7-4-1 11-9

Against The Spread (ATS) records are only reflective of games that had odds on them.

Betting Tips – Shooting Stats

  • The Mountaineers are shooting 41.5% from the field this season, 1.2 percentage points higher than the 40.3% the Spartans allow to opponents.
  • Appalachian State has an 11-2 record against the spread and a 15-2 straight-up record in games it shoots better than 40.3% from the field.
  • Norfolk State has an 8-4-1 record against the spread and an 11-3 record overall when its opponents knock down more than 41.5% of their shots from the field.
  • The Spartans have shot at a 43.6% clip from the field this season, 1.5 percentage points greater than the 42.1% shooting opponents of the Mountaineers have averaged.
  • Norfolk State is 14-1 overall and 12-1 against the spread when it shoots better than 42.1% from the field.
  • Appalachian State is 12-3 overall and 8-3 against the spread in games it allows opponents to shoot above 43.6% from the field.
  • The Mountaineers are knocking down 32.4% of their three-point shots this season, 0.8% higher than the 31.6% the Spartans allow opponents to shoot from deep.
  • Appalachian State has put together a 10-1 record against the spread and an 11-2 straight-up record in games this season when the team knocks down more than 31.6% of its three-point attempts.
  • Norfolk State has a 7-3-1 record against the spread while going 10-4 overall in games this season when its opponents shoot higher than 32.4% from downtown.
  • The Spartans are hitting 36.9% of their shots from three-point range, which is 4.7 percentage points higher than the 32.2% the Mountaineers’ are averaging on the season.
  • Norfolk State is 10-1-1 against the spread and 12-2 overall when shooting over 32.2% as a team from three-point range.
  • Appalachian State has an 11-6-1 ATS record and a 14-8 straight-up record in games this season it has shot better than 36.9% from three-point distance.
  • Appalachian State is 10-0 against the spread and 12-1 overall when it hit more threes than its opponents, while Norfolk State is 3-6 ATS and 4-5 straight up in games when it is out-shot from distance.

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