Nuggets vs Pacers: NBA Betting Preview, Tips and Picks – March 15, 2021

Posted By PlayPicks Staff on March 15, 2021 - Last Updated on March 17, 2021

Northwest Division opponents meet when the Denver Nuggets (22-16) host the Indiana Pacers (17-20) at Ball Arena, tipping off at 9:00 PM ET on Monday, March 15, 2021. The Pacers are 5-point underdogs in the game, the second matchup between the squads this season. The over/under in the matchup is set at 226.

The betting insights in this article reflect data from William Hill sportsbook as of March 14, 2021, 11:25 PM ET. See table below for current betting odds.

Nuggets vs Pacers Betting Odds

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Injury Report as of March 15

Nuggets:
Gary Harris: Day To Day (Adductor),
R.J. Hampton: Day To Day (Health and Safety Protocols),
Monte Morris: Day To Day (Quad)

Pacers:
Jeremy Lamb: Day To Day (Knee),
T.J. Warren: Out (Foot)

Computer Picks

Spread Pick Nuggets (-5)
Total Pick Under (226)
Prediction Nuggets 116, Pacers 109

The model projects the Nuggets to win, just as William Hill does, but the model favors them by a small margin more (7.1 to 5).

William Hill and the model are extremely close in their point total projections for this game, within 0.7 points of each other.

Click here for today’s NBA betting picks from our team of experts.

Nuggets Key Players

Name GP PTS REB ASST STL BLK 3PM
Nikola Jokic 38 27.1 11.1 8.6 1.6 0.6 1.5
Jamal Murray 36 20.9 4.1 4.6 1.2 0.3 2.6
Michael Porter Jr. 28 15.1 7.1 0.8 0.9 1.0 2.4
Will Barton 35 12.2 4.0 3.1 0.8 0.4 1.7
Monte Morris 36 10.4 2.2 3.4 0.7 0.3 1.1

Pacers Key Players

Name GP PTS REB ASST STL BLK 3PM
Malcolm Brogdon 36 21.5 4.7 6.2 1.2 0.2 2.5
Domantas Sabonis 37 20.8 11.3 6.2 1.1 0.6 0.9
Caris LeVert 13 18.1 4.5 5.7 1.0 0.5 1.7
Doug McDermott 36 13.4 3.9 1.4 0.3 0.1 1.6
Myles Turner 35 13.4 6.6 1.0 1.0 3.3 1.4

Shooting Trends

  • This season, the Nuggets have a 48.5% shooting percentage from the field, which is 1.6% higher than the 46.9% of shots the Pacers’ opponents have hit.
  • Denver has a 12-8 record against the spread and a 14-6 straight-up record in games it shoots higher than 46.9% from the field.
  • Indiana’s record is 14-8 against the spread and 15-7 overall when its opponents make more than 48.5% of their shots from the field.
  • The Pacers have shot at a 47.3% rate from the field this season, 0.4 percentage points higher than the 46.9% shooting opponents of the Nuggets have averaged.
  • Indiana has compiled a 14-8 record against the spread and a 16-6 straight up record in games it shoots above 46.9% from the field.
  • This season, Denver has a 14-6 record against the spread and a 19-1 straight up record when it allows opponents to shoot over 47.3% from the field.
  • The Nuggets shoot 38.6% from three-point range, 0.6% higher than the 38% the Pacers allow to opponents.
  • Denver has an 11-10 record against the spread and a 12-9 record overall when the team hits more than 38% of its three-point attempts.
  • Indiana is 10-6 against the spread while putting up a 10-6 straight-up record when its opponents shoot over 38.6% from three-point range.
  • The Pacers are hitting 36.1% of their shots from deep, which is just 0.2 percentage points greater than the 35.9% the Nuggets’ opponents are averaging on the season.
  • Indiana is 10-8 ATS and 10-8 overall when the team makes more than 35.9% of its three-point attempts.
  • Denver is 12-9 ATS and 16-5 overall in games it shoots over 36.1% from deep.
  • The Nuggets hit 13.4 three-pointers per game this season, 1.4 more made shots on average than the 12 per game the Pacers give up.
  • When Denver makes more three-pointers than its opponents, it is 8-6 against the spread and 9-5 overall. When Indiana is out-shot from beyond the arc by its opponents, it is 7-12 ATS and 9-10 straight up.
  • The Nuggets make the 10th-most three-pointers in the league, while the Pacers give up the ninth-fewest makes from beyond the arc.

Nuggets vs Pacers Stat Rankings

Nuggets Rank Nuggets AVG Pacers AVG Pacers Rank
7th 115.2 Points Scored 112.7 15th
7th 110.5 Points Allowed 112.3 18th
18th 43.7 Rebounds 41.7 28th
16th 10.1 Off. Rebounds 8.5 25th
10th 13.4 3pt Made 12 21st
7th 26.4 Assists 26.4 6th
6th 12.7 Turnovers 13.2 13th

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