Florida State vs. North Carolina Picks & Best Bets — ACC Tournament 2021

Posted By PlayPicks Staff on March 12, 2021 - Last Updated on March 17, 2021

The No. 2 seed Florida State Seminoles (15-5) are favored by 2.5 points in the ACC Tournament semifinals when they face off against the No. 6 seed North Carolina Tar Heels (18-9) Friday at Greensboro Coliseum, tipping off at 8:30 PM ET on ESPN. The winner moves one game closer to claiming a guaranteed place in the NCAA Tournament bracket.

The betting insights and predictions in this article reflect betting data from DraftKings as of March 12, 2021, 1:10 PM ET. See table below for current betting odds and CLICK HERE to bet at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Best Betting Odds

Examining the Over/Under

  • The Seminoles have an average implied point total of 74.3 this season, which is 2.7 points lower than their implied total in Friday’s game (77).
  • Florida State has outscored this matchup’s implied point total (77) 12 times.
  • The Tar Heels’ average implied point total on the season (75.8 points) is 1.8 points higher than their implied total in this matchup (74 points).
  • North Carolina has scored more than 74 points in 17 games this season.

Implied totals are projected point totals for each team based on totals and spreads set by sportsbooks.

Florida State and North Carolina Records ATS

ATS Record ATS Record Against 2.5+ Point Spread Over/Under Record (O-U-P)
Seminoles 11-8 9-7 13-5-1
Tar Heels 13-13-1 11-8-1 13-14

Against The Spread (ATS) records are only reflective of games that had odds on them.

Betting Tips – Shooting Stats

  • The Seminoles make 47.3% of their shots from the field this season, which is 5.3 percentage points higher than the Tar Heels have allowed to their opponents (42%).
  • In games when Florida State shoots better than 42% from the field, it is 13-2 overall and 11-3 against the spread.
  • North Carolina is 17-6 overall and 12-10-1 against the spread when allowing its opponents to shoot higher than 47.3% from the field.
  • The Tar Heels have shot at a 44.4% clip from the field this season, 4.5 percentage points greater than the 39.9% shooting opponents of the Seminoles have averaged.
  • This season, North Carolina has a 10-8-1 record against the spread and a 13-6 record overall in games the team shoots over 39.9% collectively from the field.
  • Florida State is 10-6 against the spread and 13-4 overall in games its opponents shoot higher than 44.4% from the field.
  • The Seminoles’ 38.4% three-point shooting percentage this season is 4.1 percentage points higher than opponents of the Tar Heels have shot from deep (34.3%).
  • Florida State has a 9-3 record against the spread and an 11-1 record overall when the team hits more than 34.3% of its three-point attempts.
  • North Carolina is 11-6-1 against the spread while putting up a 15-3 straight-up record when its opponents shoot over 38.4% from downtown.
  • The Tar Heels shoot 31.5% from beyond the arc this season. That’s 2.3 percentage points lower than the Seminoles have allowed their opponents to shoot from deep (33.8%).
  • North Carolina is 7-5 against the spread and 9-3 overall when it shoots over 33.8% as a team from deep.
  • Florida State is 4-5 ATS and 6-3 overall in games it shoots above 31.5% from deep.
  • The Seminoles’ 8.4 made three-pointers per game this season is 2.8 more made shots on average than the 5.6 per game the Tar Heels give up.
  • The Seminoles are 7-3 against the spread and 8-2 overall when they make more threes than their opponents, while the Tar Heels are 7-11-1 ATS and 11-8 straight up in games when they are out-shot from the three-point line.

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