San Diego State vs. Nevada Picks & Best Bets — MWC Tournament 2021

Posted By PlayPicks Staff on March 12, 2021 - Last Updated on March 17, 2021

The No. 5 seed Nevada Wolf Pack (16-9) are 8-point underdogs in their MWC Tournament semifinals matchup against the No. 1 seed San Diego State Aztecs (21-4) on Friday at Thomas & Mack Center, beginning at 9:30 PM ET on CBS Sports. The winner moves one step closer to the conference championship and an automatic berth in the NCAA Tournament bracket.

The betting insights and predictions in this article reflect betting data from DraftKings as of March 12, 2021, 1:10 PM ET. See table below for current betting odds and CLICK HERE to bet at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Best Betting Odds

Examining the Over/Under

  • The average implied total for the Aztecs this season is 73.2 points, 0.2 more points than their implied total of 73 points in Friday’s game.
  • San Diego State will try to surpass its implied point total for this matchup (73) for the 14th time this season.
  • The Wolf Pack’s average implied point total on the season (73.3 points) is 8.3 points higher than their implied total in this matchup (65 points).
  • This season, Nevada has scored more than this game’s implied total of 65 points 21 times.

Implied totals are projected point totals for each team based on totals and spreads set by sportsbooks.

San Diego State and Nevada Records ATS

ATS Record ATS Record Against 8+ Point Spread Over/Under Record (O-U-P)
Aztecs 13-11 9-7 13-11
Wolf Pack 18-6 1-1 15-9

Against The Spread (ATS) records are only reflective of games that had odds on them.

Betting Tips – Shooting Stats

  • The Aztecs make 45.5% of their shots from the field this season, which is 4.7 percentage points higher than the Wolf Pack have allowed to their opponents (40.8%).
  • San Diego State is 11-5 against the spread and 16-1 overall in games when it collectively shoots better than 40.8% from the field.
  • Nevada’s record is 16-2 against the spread and 14-5 overall when its opponents make more than 45.5% of their shots from the field.
  • The Wolf Pack have shot at a 45% clip from the field this season, 6.1 percentage points greater than the 38.9% shooting opponents of the Aztecs have averaged.
  • Nevada is 14-6 overall and 15-4 against the spread when it shoots higher than 38.9% from the field.
  • San Diego State is 18-3 overall and 10-10 against the spread in games it allows opponents to shoot above 45% from the field.
  • The Aztecs’ 37.9% three-point shooting percentage this season is 4.9 percentage points higher than opponents of the Wolf Pack have shot from beyond the arc (33%).
  • San Diego State has a 10-5 record against the spread and a 14-2 record overall when the team hits more than 33% of its three-point shots.
  • Nevada has compiled a 14-4 against the spread while going 13-6 overall in games this season when its opponents shoot higher than 37.9% from deep.
  • The Wolf Pack shoot 36% from beyond the arc this season. That’s 2.9 percentage points higher than the Aztecs have allowed their opponents to shoot from deep (33.1%).
  • Nevada is 11-5 straight-up and has a 13-2 ATS record when the team makes more than 33.1% of its three-point attempts.
  • San Diego State is 10-7 ATS and 16-2 overall in games when shooting above 36% from deep.
  • San Diego State has gone 9-2 against the spread and 10-2 overall this season in games it has out-shot its opponents from the three-point line. When Nevada hits fewer three-pointers than its opponents, it is 6-4 ATS and 6-4 straight up.

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