Heat vs Bulls: NBA Betting Preview, Tips and Picks – March 12, 2021

Posted By PlayPicks Staff on March 12, 2021 - Last Updated on March 17, 2021

The Chicago Bulls (16-19) host the Miami Heat (19-18) after losing three home games in a row. The Heat are favored by just 2.5 points in the contest, which starts at 9:00 PM ET on Friday, March 12, 2021. The matchup’s point total is 221.5.

The betting insights in this article reflect data from DraftKings sportsbook as of March 12, 2021, 12:05 PM ET. See table below for current betting odds.

Heat vs Bulls Betting Odds

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Injury Report as of March 12

Avery Bradley: Day To Day (Calf),
Bam Adebayo: Day To Day (Knee),
Meyers Leonard: Out For Season (Shoulder)

Devon Dotson: Day To Day (Knee),
Chandler Hutchison: Out (Personal)

Computer Picks

Spread Pick Bulls (+2.5)
Total Pick Over (221.5)
Prediction Heat 112, Bulls 111

The spread for this matchup suggested by the model (0.0 points) is a little bit less than the 2.5-point edge DraftKings gives to the Heat, though the data still has them as the favorite.

The model predicts a total 1.2 points higher than the one set by DraftKings for this matchup.

Click here for today’s NBA betting picks from our team of experts.

Heat Key Players

Jimmy Butler 23 20.8 7.6 8.0 2.0 0.4 0.4
Bam Adebayo 33 19.2 9.5 5.4 0.9 1.0 0.1
Tyler Herro 26 15.9 5.7 3.7 0.6 0.4 2.0
Goran Dragic 23 14.6 3.0 4.8 0.6 0.1 1.7
Kendrick Nunn 29 14.2 3.3 2.7 1.2 0.3 2.0

Heat Player Props

  • Jimmy Butler’s PRA prop total for the contest is set at 32.5, 3.8 lower than his season average of 36.3.
  • Duncan Robinson’s three pointers made prop total for the game is set at 3.5, 0.3 shots higher than his season average of 3.2.
  • Butler’s steals prop over/under for the contest is set at 1.5, 0.5 steals less than his season average of 2.0.

Bulls Key Players

Zach LaVine 35 28.4 5.2 5.1 1.1 0.4 3.5
Lauri Markkanen 15 19.4 5.9 0.8 0.5 0.4 3.1
Coby White 35 16.3 5.0 5.0 0.3 0.2 2.4
Thaddeus Young 31 12.1 5.9 4.3 1.4 0.6 0.2
Wendell Carter Jr. 24 12.1 7.8 2.2 0.7 0.9 0.3

Bulls Player Props

  • Zach LaVine’s points prop total for the contest is set at 28.5, 0.1 points higher than his season average of 28.4.
  • Wendell Carter Jr.’s PRA prop over/under for the contest is set at 21.5, 0.6 lower than his season average of 22.1.
  • LaVine’s three pointers made prop over/under for the game is set at 3.5, equal to his season average of 3.5.

Shooting Trends

  • The Heat are shooting 46.2% from the field this season, 1.5 percentage points lower than the 47.7% the Bulls allow to opponents.
  • Miami is 9-6 against the spread and 11-4 overall when it shoots better than 47.7% from the field.
  • Chicago has an 11-3 record against the spread and an 11-4 record overall when allowing its opponents to hit more than 46.2% of their shots from the field.
  • The Bulls’ 48.5% shooting percentage from the field this season is four percentage points higher than the Heat have allowed to their opponents (44.5%).
  • This season, Chicago has a 16-9 record against the spread and a 13-13 record overall in games the team collectively shoots higher than 44.5% from the field.
  • This season, Miami has a 13-17 record against the spread and an 18-12 straight up record when it allows opponents to shoot higher than 48.5% from the field.
  • The Heat’s 35.2% three-point shooting percentage this season is just 0.1 percentage points higher than opponents of the Bulls have shot from deep (35.1%).
  • Miami has an 11-9 record against the spread and a 14-6 record overall when the team knocks down more than 35.1% of its three-point shots.
  • Chicago has put up an 11-7 against the spread while going 12-7 overall in games this season when its opponents shoot higher than 35.2% from downtown.
  • The Bulls shoot 38.1% from beyond the arc this season. That’s 1.9 percentage points higher than the Heat have allowed their opponents to shoot from deep (36.2%).
  • Chicago has a 14-7 ATS record and is 11-10 straight-up when the team makes more than 36.2% of its three-point attempts.
  • Miami has a 13-13 ATS record and a 17-9 straight-up record this season when it makes more than 38.1% of its three-point attempts.
  • The Heat knock down 12.9 three-pointers per game this season, only 0.2 fewer made shots on average than the 13.1 per game the Bulls give up.
  • Chicago is 11-9 against the spread and 11-9 overall when it connects on more threes than its opponents, while Miami is 8-15 ATS and 9-14 straight up in games when it is out-shot from deep.
  • The Bulls are the 13th-best three-point shooting team in the NBA, while the Heat give up the 28th-fewest makes from deep.

Heat vs Bulls Stat Rankings

Heat Rank Heat AVG Bulls AVG Bulls Rank
26th 106.9 Points Scored 114.7 9th
5th 108.2 Points Allowed 115.5 25th
27th 42.4 Rebounds 44.1 15th
30th 7.6 Off. Rebounds 8.9 22nd
15th 12.9 3pt Made 13.1 13th
11th 25.8 Assists 26.2 8th
28th 14.8 Turnovers 15.4 30th

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