Alabama vs. Mississippi State Picks & Best Bets — SEC Tournament 2021

Posted By PlayPicks Staff on March 12, 2021 - Last Updated on March 17, 2021

The No. 1 seed Alabama Crimson Tide (21-6) are 8.5-point favorites to win and move closer to a guaranteed berth in the NCAA Tournament bracket against the No. 9 seed Mississippi State Bulldogs (15-13) in the SEC Tournament quarterfinals Friday at Bridgestone Arena, starting at 12:00 PM ET on ESPN.

The betting insights and predictions in this article reflect betting data from DraftKings as of March 12, 2021, 2:10 AM ET. See table below for current betting odds and CLICK HERE to bet at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Best Betting Odds

Examining the Over/Under

  • The Crimson Tide have an average implied point total of 80.3 this season, which is 5.3 points higher than their implied total in Friday’s game (75).
  • Alabama has scored more than its implied point total for this matchup (75) 17 times this season.
  • The average implied point total on the season for the Bulldogs (72) is six more points than the team’s implied total in this matchup (66).
  • Mississippi State has scored more than 66 points in 20 games this season.

Implied totals are projected point totals for each team based on totals and spreads set by sportsbooks.

Alabama and Mississippi State Records ATS

ATS Record ATS Record Against 8.5+ Point Spread Over/Under Record (O-U-P)
Crimson Tide 14-11-1 6-2 12-14
Bulldogs 16-11 3-1 13-14

Against The Spread (ATS) records are only reflective of games that had odds on them.

Betting Tips – Shooting Stats

  • This season, the Crimson Tide have a 43% shooting percentage from the field, which is 3% higher than the 40% of shots the Bulldogs’ opponents have knocked down.
  • Alabama is 16-0 overall and 11-3-1 against the spread when it shoots better than 40% from the field.
  • Mississippi State is 14-5 overall and 13-5 against the spread when allowing opponents to shoot better than 43% from the field.
  • The Bulldogs are shooting 45.6% from the field, 4.7% higher than the 40.9% the Crimson Tide’s opponents have shot this season.
  • Mississippi State has put together a 15-7 straight up record and a 14-7 record against the spread in games it shoots over 40.9% from the field.
  • Alabama is 12-6 against the spread and 17-2 straight up in games when allowing opponents to shoot greater than 45.6% from the field.
  • The Crimson Tide shoot 35.4% from beyond the arc, 3.3% higher than the 32.1% the Bulldogs allow to opponents.
  • Alabama has assembled a 10-6 record against the spread and a 14-3 straight-up record in games this season when the team knocks down more than 32.1% of its three-point shots.
  • Mississippi State is 11-5 against the spread and 10-7 overall when its opponents shoot higher than 35.4% from deep.
  • The Bulldogs three-point shooting percentage this season (34.5%) is 5.5 percentage points higher than opponents of the Crimson Tide are averaging (29%).
  • Mississippi State is 12-5 overall and 11-6 against the spread when it shoots better than 29% as a team from three-point distance.
  • Alabama is 9-7-1 ATS and 14-4 overall in games it shoots above 34.5% from deep.
  • The Crimson Tide’s 10.7 made three-pointers per game this season is 5.3 more made shots on average than the 5.4 per game the Bulldogs allow.
  • Alabama is 11-7-1 against the spread and 16-4 overall when it hit more threes than its opponents, while Mississippi State is 9-8 ATS and 8-10 straight up in games when it is out-shot from distance.

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