SMU vs. Cincinnati Picks & Best Bets — AAC Tournament 2021

Posted By PlayPicks Staff on March 12, 2021 - Last Updated on March 17, 2021

The No. 4 seed SMU Mustangs (11-4) are 6-point favorites in the AAC Tournament quarterfinals over the No. 5 seed Cincinnati Bearcats (10-10) on Friday at Dickies Arena. The game begins at 3:00 PM ET and airs on ESPN2, with both teams hoping to move one step closer to an automatic berth in the NCAA Tournament bracket.

The betting insights and predictions in this article reflect betting data from DraftKings as of March 12, 2021, 2:10 AM ET. See table below for current betting odds and CLICK HERE to bet at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Best Betting Odds

Examining the Over/Under

  • The Mustangs have an average implied point total of 73.7 this season, which is 1.3 points lower than their implied total in Friday’s game (75).
  • SMU has surpassed its implied point total for this matchup (75) six times this season.
  • The Bearcats’ average implied point total on the season (71.5 points) is 2.5 points higher than their implied total in this matchup (69 points).
  • Cincinnati has totaled more than 69 points 12 times this season.

Implied totals are projected point totals for each team based on totals and spreads set by sportsbooks.

SMU and Cincinnati Records ATS

ATS Record ATS Record Against 6+ Point Spread Over/Under Record (O-U-P)
Mustangs 6-7-1 4-2-1 7-7
Bearcats 6-12 1-4 14-4

Against The Spread (ATS) records are only reflective of games that had odds on them.

Betting Tips – Shooting Stats

  • The Mustangs make 45.8% of their shots from the field this season, which is 2.2 percentage points higher than the Bearcats have allowed to their opponents (43.6%).
  • SMU has a 7-2 straight-up record and a 4-3-1 record against the spread in games it shoots higher than 43.6% from the field.
  • Cincinnati has put up a 6-5 record against the spread and a 10-3 record overall when its opponents hit more than 45.8% of their shots from the field.
  • The Bearcats are shooting 43% from the field, 3.3% higher than the 39.7% the Mustangs’ opponents have shot this season.
  • Cincinnati is 5-8 against the spread and 9-6 overall when it shoots higher than 39.7% from the field.
  • When SMU’s opponents shoot above 43% from the field, it is 5-4-1 against the spread and 9-2 overall.
  • The Mustangs are hitting 34% of their three-point shots this season, 1.7% higher than the 32.3% the Bearcats allow opponents to shoot from deep.
  • SMU has collected a 4-3-1 record against the spread and an 8-1 straight-up record in games this season when connecting on more than 32.3% of its three-point shots.
  • Cincinnati is 3-6 against the spread while putting up a 6-5 straight-up record when its opponents shoot over 34% from downtown.
  • The Bearcats three-point shooting percentage this season (31.2%) is 2.4 percentage points lower than opponents of the Mustangs are averaging (33.6%).
  • Cincinnati has a 4-3 ATS record and is 5-3 straight-up in games when the team hits more than 33.6% of its three-point attempts.
  • SMU has a 4-1-1 ATS record and a 6-0 straight-up record this season in games it has shot better than 31.2% from three-point distance.
  • The Mustangs are 5-3 against the spread and 7-1 overall when they make more threes than their opponents, while the Bearcats are 1-5 ATS and 3-3 straight up in games when they are out-shot from the three-point line.

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