Colorado State vs. Fresno State Picks & Best Bets — MWC Tournament 2021

Posted By PlayPicks Staff on March 11, 2021 - Last Updated on March 17, 2021

The No. 3 seed Colorado State Rams (17-5) are 8.5-point favorites in the MWC Tournament quarterfinals over the No. 6 seed Fresno State Bulldogs (12-11) on Thursday at Thomas & Mack Center. The contest begins at 11:30 PM ET and airs on CBS Sports, with both teams hoping to move one step closer to an automatic berth in the NCAA Tournament bracket.

The betting insights and predictions in this article reflect betting data from DraftKings as of March 11, 2021, 1:11 PM ET. See table below for current betting odds and CLICK HERE to bet at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Best Betting Odds

Computer Picks

Pick ATS:
Rams (-8.5)

The Rams are the bet in this matchup. They’re favored by 3.1 more points in the model than DraftKings (11.6 to 8.5).

Pick OU:
Over (136.5)

DraftKings and the model are extremely close in their point total projections for this contest, within 0.4 points of each other.

Prediction: Colorado State 74, Fresno State 63

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm (raw power score) that ranks head-to-head matchup results within a closed network of games. Prediction confidence is determined by the delta between each team’s raw power score.

Examining the Over/Under

  • The average implied total for the Rams this season is 77 points, four more points than their implied total of 73 points in Thursday’s game.
  • This season, Colorado State has scored more than its implied point total for this matchup (73) 15 times.
  • The 71.9-point average implied total on the season for the Bulldogs is 7.9 more points than the team’s 64-point implied total in this matchup.
  • Fresno State is trying to surpass its implied point total for this matchup (64) for the 15th time this season.

Implied totals are projected point totals for each team based on totals and spreads set by sportsbooks.

Colorado State and Fresno State Records ATS

ATS Record ATS Record Against 8.5+ Point Spread Over/Under Record (O-U-P)
Rams 11-9 7-2 9-11
Bulldogs 9-12 2-1 9-12

Against The Spread (ATS) records are only reflective of games that had odds on them.

Betting Tips – Shooting Stats

  • The Rams are shooting 48.2% from the field this season, 5.1 percentage points higher than the 43.1% the Bulldogs allow to opponents.
  • In games when Colorado State shoots higher than 43.1% from the field, it is 9-4 against the spread and 13-1 overall.
  • Fresno State’s record is 12-7 overall and 9-8 against the spread when its opponents make more than 48.2% of their shots from the field.
  • The Bulldogs are shooting 42.9% from the field, 1.8% higher than the 41.1% the Rams’ opponents have shot this season.
  • This season, Fresno State has a 6-5 record against the spread and an 8-4 record overall in games the team shoots over 41.1% collectively from the field.
  • When Colorado State’s opponents hit better than 42.9% from the field, it is 11-5 against the spread and 16-2 overall.
  • The Rams are making 36.8% of their three-point shots this season, 1.6% higher than the 35.2% the Bulldogs allow opponents to shoot from deep.
  • Colorado State has a 9-5 record against the spread and a 14-1 record overall when the team knocks down more than 35.2% of its shots from three-point distance.
  • Fresno State has put up a 10-3 straight-up record and gone 6-5 against the spread in games when its opponents shoot over 36.8% from three-point range.
  • The Bulldogs shoot 32.4% from beyond the arc this season. That’s 2.7 percentage points higher than the Rams have allowed their opponents to shoot from deep (29.7%).
  • Fresno State has a 7-5 ATS record and is 9-5 straight-up when the team hits more than 29.7% of its three-point attempts.
  • Colorado State has a 10-5 ATS record and a 15-1 straight-up record this season when it hits more than 32.4% of its three-point attempts.
  • The Rams connect on 8.9 three-pointers per game this season, 2.2 more makes per game than the Bulldogs give up (6.7).
  • The Rams are 8-3 against the spread and 12-0 overall when they make more threes than their opponents, while the Bulldogs are 1-9 ATS and 5-7 straight up in games when they are out-shot from the three-point line.

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