The No. 4 seed West Virginia Mountaineers (18-8) are favored by 3 points in their Big 12 Tournament quarterfinal matchup against the No. 5 seed Oklahoma State Cowboys (18-7) on Thursday at Sprint Center, starting at 11:30 AM ET on ESPN. The winner will move one step closer to earning an automatic spot in the NCAA Tournament bracket.
The betting insights and predictions in this article reflect betting data from DraftKings as of March 11, 2021, 2:10 AM ET. See table below for current betting odds and CLICK HERE to bet at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Best Betting Odds
The spread for this matchup suggested by the model (1.5 points) is a little tighter than the 3-point edge DraftKings gives to the Mountaineers, though the data still has them as the favorite.
The model predicts a total 1.7 points lower than the one set by DraftKings for this game.
Prediction: West Virginia 75, Oklahoma State 74
Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm (raw power score) that ranks head-to-head matchup results within a closed network of games. Prediction confidence is determined by the delta between each team’s raw power score.
Examining the Over/Under
- The Mountaineers’ average implied point total this season is 1.5 fewer points than their implied total in Thursday’s game (75.5 implied points on average compared to 77 implied points in this game).
- West Virginia will attempt to outscore its implied point total for this matchup (77) for the 14th time this season.
- The average implied point total on the season for the Cowboys (76) is two more points than the team’s implied total in this matchup (74).
- Oklahoma State has put up more than 74 points in 18 games on the season.
Implied totals are projected point totals for each team based on totals and spreads set by sportsbooks.
West Virginia and Oklahoma State Records ATS
|ATS Record||ATS Record Against 3+ Point Spread||Over/Under Record (O-U-P)|
Against The Spread (ATS) records are only reflective of games that had odds on them.
Betting Tips – Shooting Stats
- The Mountaineers make 42.9% of their shots from the field this season, which is two percentage points higher than the Cowboys have allowed to their opponents (40.9%).
- West Virginia is 12-5 against the spread and 13-4 overall in games when it shoots better than 40.9% from the field.
- Oklahoma State’s record is 11-5-1 against the spread and 14-3 overall when its opponents make more than 42.9% of their shots from the field.
- The Cowboys are shooting 46.7% from the field, 2.1% higher than the 44.6% the Mountaineers’ opponents have shot this season.
- Oklahoma State has compiled a 12-4 record against the spread and a 12-4 straight up record in games it shoots higher than 44.6% from the field.
- This season, West Virginia has an 8-9 record against the spread and a 13-4 record overall when its opponents shoot higher than 46.7% from the field.
- The Mountaineers’ 36% three-point shooting percentage this season is 4.3 percentage points higher than opponents of the Cowboys have shot from deep (31.7%).
- West Virginia is 12-4 overall and 9-7 against the spread when it shoots better than 31.7% from distance.
- Oklahoma State is 11-4-1 against the spread while putting up a 13-3 straight-up record when its opponents shoot above 36% from three-point range.
- The Cowboys are knocking down 33.8% of their shots from three-point distance, which is only 1.1 percentage points greater than the 32.7% the Mountaineers’ opponents are averaging on the season.
- Oklahoma State is 12-3 overall and 11-4 against the spread when it shoots above 32.7% as a team from three-point range.
- West Virginia has a 9-6 ATS record and an 11-4 straight-up record in games this season it has shot better than 33.8% from three-point distance.
- West Virginia is 10-5 against the spread and 11-4 overall when it makes more threes than its opponents, while Oklahoma State is 8-5 ATS and 8-5 straight up in games when it is out-shot from deep.
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