The top-seeded Virginia Cavaliers (17-6) are 5.5-point favorites in the ACC Tournament quarterfinals over the No. 8 seed Syracuse Orange (16-8) on Thursday at Greensboro Coliseum. The matchup tips at 12:00 PM ET, with the winner moving one step closer to securing a guaranteed spot in the NCAA Tournament bracket.
The betting insights and predictions in this article reflect betting data from DraftKings as of March 11, 2021, 2:10 AM ET. See table below for current betting odds and CLICK HERE to bet at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Best Betting Odds
The spread for this matchup suggested by the model (1.4 points) is much tighter than the 5.5-point edge DraftKings gives to the Cavaliers, though the data still has them as the favorite. Put your money on the Orange to cover.
The model projects a total 5.2 points higher than the one set by DraftKings for this matchup.
Prediction: Virginia 70, Syracuse 68
Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm (raw power score) that ranks head-to-head matchup results within a closed network of games. Prediction confidence is determined by the delta between each team’s raw power score.
Examining the Over/Under
- The Cavaliers have an average implied point total of 68 this season, which is one point lower than their implied total in Thursday’s game (69).
- Virginia has surpassed its implied point total for this matchup (69) 10 times this season.
- The average implied point total on the season for the Orange (76.1) is 12.1 more points than the team’s implied total in this matchup (64).
- Syracuse has scored more than this game’s implied total of 64 points 20 times this season.
Implied totals are projected point totals for each team based on totals and spreads set by sportsbooks.
Virginia and Syracuse Records ATS
|ATS Record||ATS Record Against 5.5+ Point Spread||Over/Under Record (O-U-P)|
Against The Spread (ATS) records are only reflective of games that had odds on them.
Betting Tips – Shooting Stats
- The Cavaliers make 48.1% of their shots from the field this season, which is 6.7 percentage points higher than the Orange have allowed to their opponents (41.4%).
- Virginia is 11-6 against the spread and 15-3 overall when it shoots higher than 41.4% from the field.
- Syracuse is 8-8 against the spread and 15-3 overall when its opponents shoot higher than 48.1% from the field.
- The Orange’s 44.2% shooting percentage from the field this season is 2.5 percentage points higher than the Cavaliers have given up to their opponents (41.7%).
- Syracuse is 7-5 against the spread and 12-2 overall when shooting higher than 41.7% from the field.
- Virginia is 12-3 against the spread and 15-1 straight up in games when allowing opponents to shoot over 44.2% from the field.
- The Cavaliers shoot 38.5% from three-point range, 6.9% higher than the 31.6% the Orange allow to opponents.
- Virginia is 8-7 against the spread and 12-4 overall when it shoots better than 31.6% from distance.
- Syracuse is 5-9 against the spread and 12-5 overall when its opponents make more than 38.5% of their shots from deep.
- The Orange’s three-point shooting percentage this season (33.5%) is just 0.6 percentage points lower than opponents of the Cavaliers are averaging (34.1%).
- Syracuse is 9-1 overall and 5-4 against the spread when it shoots above 34.1% as a team from three-point range.
- Virginia is 10-2 ATS and 13-0 overall in games when shooting over 33.5% from deep.
- The Cavaliers are 9-4 against the spread and 11-2 overall when they make more threes than their opponents, while the Orange are 3-8 ATS and 8-5 straight up in games when they are out-shot from the three-point line.
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