Kentucky vs. Mississippi State Picks & Best Bets — SEC Tournament 2021

Written By PlayPicks Staff on March 11, 2021

The No. 8 seed Kentucky Wildcats (9-15) and the No. 9 seed Mississippi State Bulldogs (14-13) will look to advance in the SEC tournament on Thursday as they meet in the quarterfinals of the conference tournament at 12:00 PM ET on SECN. Kentucky is listed as a 3.5-point favorite to win this contest and advance closer to an automatic spot in the NCAA Tournament bracket.

The betting insights and predictions in this article reflect betting data from DraftKings as of March 11, 2021, 2:10 AM ET. See table below for current betting odds and CLICK HERE to bet at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Best Betting Odds

Computer Picks

Pick ATS:
Bulldogs (+3.5)

The model favors the Wildcats by 2.2 points, just 1.3 fewer than the 3.5-point spread set by DraftKings.

Pick OU:
Over (131)

In this matchup, the model projects a total (137.7 points) marginally higher than the DraftKings over/under (131 points).

Prediction: Kentucky 70, Mississippi State 68

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm (raw power score) that ranks head-to-head matchup results within a closed network of games. Prediction confidence is determined by the delta between each team’s raw power score.

Examining the Over/Under

  • The Wildcats have an average implied point total of 73.2 this season, which is 6.2 points higher than their implied total in Thursday’s game (67).
  • Kentucky has surpassed its implied point total for this matchup (67) 13 times this season.
  • The 72.2-point average implied total on the season for the Bulldogs is 8.2 more points than the team’s 64-point implied total in this matchup.
  • Mississippi State has totaled more than 64 points in 19 games on the season.

Implied totals are projected point totals for each team based on totals and spreads set by sportsbooks.

Kentucky and Mississippi State Records ATS

ATS Record ATS Record Against 3.5+ Point Spread Over/Under Record (O-U-P)
Wildcats 6-16-2 2-7-1 11-13
Bulldogs 15-11 6-6 12-14

Against The Spread (ATS) records are only reflective of games that had odds on them.

Betting Tips – Shooting Stats

  • The Wildcats are shooting 41.8% from the field this season, 1.9 percentage points higher than the 39.9% the Bulldogs allow to opponents.
  • Kentucky is 9-6 overall and 6-8-1 against the spread when it shoots higher than 39.9% from the field.
  • Mississippi State is 12-5 against the spread and 13-5 overall in games it allows its opponents to shoot better than 41.8% from the field.
  • The Bulldogs are shooting 45.5% from the field, 4.6% higher than the 40.9% the Wildcats’ opponents have shot this season.
  • Mississippi State is 14-7 overall and 13-7 against the spread when it shoots better than 40.9% from the field.
  • Kentucky is 9-10 overall and 6-11-2 against the spread in games it allows opponents to shoot higher than 45.5% from the field.
  • The Wildcats are making 33.1% of their three-point shots this season, 1.4% higher than the 31.7% the Bulldogs allow opponents to shoot from deep.
  • Kentucky is 7-4 overall and 5-6 against the spread when it shoots better than 31.7% from distance.
  • Mississippi State has an 11-4 record against the spread while going 10-6 overall in games this season when its opponents shoot better than 33.1% from downtown.
  • The Bulldogs three-point shooting percentage this season (34.7%) is 3.6 percentage points higher than opponents of the Wildcats are averaging (31.1%).
  • Mississippi State has a 9-5 ATS record and is 11-3 straight-up in games when the team hits more than 31.1% of its three-point attempts.
  • Kentucky has a 5-8-2 ATS record and a 6-9 straight-up record in games this season it has shot better than 34.7% from three-point distance.
  • When Kentucky makes more threes than its opponents, it is 5-1-1 against the spread and 6-1 overall. When Mississippi State is out-shot from beyond the arc by its opponents, it is 8-8 ATS and 7-10 straight up.

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