UCSB vs. Long Beach State Picks & Best Bets — Big West Tournament 2021

Written By PlayPicks Staff on March 11, 2021

The No. 9 seed Long Beach State Beach (6-11) are 14-point underdogs in their Big West Tournament quarterfinals matchup against the No. 1 seed UCSB Gauchos (18-4) on Thursday at Mandalay Bay Event Center, starting at 2:00 PM ET on ESPN3. The winner moves one step closer to the conference championship and an automatic berth in the NCAA Tournament bracket.

The betting insights and predictions in this article reflect betting data from DraftKings as of March 11, 2021, 2:10 AM ET. See table below for current betting odds and CLICK HERE to bet at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Best Betting Odds

Computer Picks

Pick ATS:
Beach (+14)

The model and DraftKings both have the Gauchos taking home the win, but the model has them winning by slightly less (13.2 points). Lean towards taking the Beach.

Pick OU:
Over (140)

In this matchup, the model projects a total (143.6 points) a little higher than the DraftKings over/under (140 points).

Prediction: UCSB 78, Long Beach State 65

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm (raw power score) that ranks head-to-head matchup results within a closed network of games. Prediction confidence is determined by the delta between each team’s raw power score.

Examining the Over/Under

  • The Gauchos have an average implied point total of 73.1 this season, which is 3.9 points lower than their implied total in Thursday’s game (77).
  • UCSB has outscored its implied point total for this matchup (77) seven times this season.
  • The Beach’s average implied point total on the season (77.3 points) is 14.3 points higher than their implied total in this matchup (63 points).
  • Long Beach State has scored more than 63 points 14 times this season.

Implied totals are projected point totals for each team based on totals and spreads set by sportsbooks.

UCSB and Long Beach State Records ATS

ATS Record ATS Record Against 14+ Point Spread Over/Under Record (O-U-P)
Gauchos 9-8 1-3 8-9
Beach 8-7 0-0 9-6

Against The Spread (ATS) records are only reflective of games that had odds on them.

Betting Tips – Shooting Stats

  • This season, the Gauchos have a 46.7% shooting percentage from the field, which is 4.1% higher than the 42.6% of shots the Beach’s opponents have knocked down.
  • In games when UCSB shoots better than 42.6% from the field, it is 8-5 against the spread and 15-1 overall.
  • Long Beach State is 8-5 against the spread and 6-7 overall when its opponents shoot better than 46.7% from the field.
  • The Beach’s 44.3% shooting percentage from the field this season is 2.8 percentage points higher than the Gauchos have allowed to their opponents (41.5%).
  • Long Beach State is 5-7 overall and 7-4 against the spread when it makes more than 41.5% of its shots from the field.
  • UCSB is 6-3 against the spread and 13-1 overall in games its opponents shoot higher than 44.3% from the field.
  • The Gauchos’ 34.3% three-point shooting percentage this season is only 0.1 percentage points lower than opponents of the Beach have shot from beyond the arc (34.4%).
  • UCSB has collected a 10-2 straight-up record and a 7-4 record against the spread in games when the team knocks down more than 34.4% of its three-point shots this season.
  • Long Beach State is 6-3 against the spread while putting up a 4-5 straight-up record when its opponents make more than 34.3% of their shots from three-point distance.
  • The Beach are hitting 35% of their shots from three-point range, which is 3.2 percentage points higher than the 31.8% the Gauchos’ are averaging on the season.
  • Long Beach State has a 5-4 ATS record and has gone 4-6 straight-up when making more than 31.8% of its three-point attempts.
  • UCSB has a 13-0 straight-up record and a 9-1 ATS record when it has shot better than 35% from three-point distance.
  • Long Beach State is 4-2 against the spread and 3-3 overall when it makes more three-pointers than its opponents, while UCSB is 1-2 ATS and 5-1 straight up in games when it is out-shot from distance.

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