Buffalo vs. Miami (OH) Picks & Best Bets — MAC Tournament 2021

Written By PlayPicks Staff on March 11, 2021

The No. 2 seed Buffalo Bulls (14-7) are favored by 8 points in the MAC Tournament quarterfinals when they play the No. 7 seed Miami (OH) RedHawks (12-10) Thursday at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse, beginning at 4:00 PM ET on ESPN+. The winner moves one game closer to claiming a guaranteed place in the NCAA Tournament bracket.

The betting insights and predictions in this article reflect betting data from DraftKings as of March 11, 2021, 2:10 AM ET. See table below for current betting odds and CLICK HERE to bet at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Best Betting Odds

Computer Picks

Pick ATS:
Bulls (-8)

Both DraftKings and the model expect the Bulls to walk away with the win, but the model spread (9.8) is 1.8 points further in their direction.

Pick OU:
Under (151)

DraftKings and the model are extremely close in their point total projections for this contest, within 0.9 points of each other.

Prediction: Buffalo 80, Miami (OH) 70

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm (raw power score) that ranks head-to-head matchup results within a closed network of games. Prediction confidence is determined by the delta between each team’s raw power score.

Examining the Over/Under

  • The average implied total for the Bulls this season is 81.2 points, 1.2 more points than their implied total of 80 points in Thursday’s game.
  • Buffalo has outscored this matchup’s implied point total (80) 14 times.
  • The RedHawks’ average implied point total on the season (74 points) is two points higher than their implied total in this matchup (72 points).
  • Miami (OH) has scored more than 72 points in 11 games this season.

Implied totals are projected point totals for each team based on totals and spreads set by sportsbooks.

Buffalo and Miami (OH) Records ATS

ATS Record ATS Record Against 8+ Point Spread Over/Under Record (O-U-P)
Bulls 13-7 4-1 10-10
RedHawks 9-10-2 0-2 13-8

Against The Spread (ATS) records are only reflective of games that had odds on them.

Betting Tips – Shooting Stats

  • The Bulls are shooting 46.6% from the field this season, 1.8 percentage points higher than the 44.8% the RedHawks allow to opponents.
  • Buffalo has a 10-3 straight-up record and a 9-3 record against the spread in games it shoots higher than 44.8% from the field.
  • Miami (OH) is 7-3-1 against the spread and 8-3 overall when its opponents shoot better than 46.6% from the field.
  • The RedHawks have shot at a 43.8% rate from the field this season, 2.7 percentage points higher than the 41.1% shooting opponents of the Bulls have averaged.
  • Miami (OH) has compiled an 8-3 straight up record and an 8-2 record against the spread in games it shoots above 41.1% from the field.
  • Buffalo is 10-3 against the spread and 12-2 overall in games its opponents shoot greater than 43.8% from the field.
  • The Bulls are hitting 32.6% of their three-point shots this season, 2.1% lower than the 34.7% the RedHawks allow opponents to shoot from deep.
  • Buffalo is 6-1 against the spread and 6-1 overall when it shoots better than 34.7% from deep.
  • Miami (OH) is 6-3 against the spread and 7-2 overall when its opponents shoot higher than 32.6% from deep.
  • The RedHawks three-point shooting percentage this season (36.6%) is 8.9 percentage points higher than opponents of the Bulls are averaging (27.7%).
  • Miami (OH) is 9-6-2 against the spread and 10-8 overall when shooting over 27.7% as a team from three-point range.
  • Buffalo has a 13-5 straight-up record and a 12-5 ATS record this season when it makes more than 36.6% of its three-point attempts.
  • The Bulls connect on 6.9 three-pointers per game this season, 1.8 fewer makes per game than the RedHawks give up (8.7).
  • When Miami (OH) makes more three-pointers than its opponents, it is 6-2 against the spread and 7-2 overall. When Buffalo is out-shot from beyond the arc by its opponents, it is 1-4 ATS and 4-2 straight up.

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