Montana State vs. Idaho State Picks & Best Bets — Big Sky Tournament 2021

Written By PlayPicks Staff on March 11, 2021

The No. 4 seed Idaho State Bengals (13-10) are 2-point underdogs in their Big Sky Tournament quarterfinals matchup against the No. 5 seed Montana State Bobcats (11-9) on Thursday at CenturyLink Arena, beginning at 4:00 PM ET. The winner moves one step closer to the conference championship and an automatic berth in the NCAA Tournament bracket.

The betting insights and predictions in this article reflect betting data from DraftKings as of March 11, 2021, 2:10 AM ET. See table below for current betting odds and CLICK HERE to bet at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Best Betting Odds

Computer Picks

Pick ATS:
Bengals (+2)

The model and DraftKings both have the Bobcats taking home the win, but the model has them winning by slightly less (0.1 points). Lean towards taking the Bengals.

Pick OU:
Over (130)

In this game, the model projects a total (135.1 points) slightly higher than the DraftKings over/under (130 points).

Prediction: Montana State 69, Idaho State 68

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm (raw power score) that ranks head-to-head matchup results within a closed network of games. Prediction confidence is determined by the delta between each team’s raw power score.

Examining the Over/Under

  • The Bobcats have an average implied point total of 73.2 this season, which is 7.2 points higher than their implied total in Thursday’s game (66).
  • Montana State has scored more than its implied point total for this matchup (66) 16 times this season.
  • The Bengals’ average implied point total on the season (71.3 points) is 7.3 points higher than their implied total in this matchup (64 points).
  • Idaho State has totaled more than 64 points in 14 games on the season.

Implied totals are projected point totals for each team based on totals and spreads set by sportsbooks.

Montana State and Idaho State Records ATS

ATS Record ATS Record Against 2+ Point Spread Over/Under Record (O-U-P)
Bobcats 6-11-1 2-6-1 12-6
Bengals 9-9 1-3 4-14

Against The Spread (ATS) records are only reflective of games that had odds on them.

Betting Tips – Shooting Stats

  • This season, the Bobcats have a 46% shooting percentage from the field, which is 5.7% higher than the 40.3% of shots the Bengals’ opponents have hit.
  • Montana State has put together a 6-8-1 record against the spread and an 11-6 straight-up record in games it shoots higher than 40.3% from the field.
  • Idaho State’s record is 12-6 overall and 6-7 against the spread when its opponents make more than 46% of their shots from the field.
  • The Bengals are shooting 45% from the field, 1.2% higher than the 43.8% the Bobcats’ opponents have shot this season.
  • This season, Idaho State has put together a 7-2 record against the spread and a 12-2 record overall in games the team shoots over 43.8% collectively from the field.
  • When opponents of Montana State shoot higher than 45% from the field, it is 5-2-1 against the spread and 8-2 overall.
  • The Bobcats’ 34.2% three-point shooting percentage this season is just 0.6 percentage points lower than opponents of the Bengals have shot from beyond the arc (34.8%).
  • Montana State is 3-7 against the spread and 7-5 overall when it shoots better than 34.8% from distance.
  • Idaho State has put up a 6-4 straight-up record and gone 4-3 against the spread in games when its opponents shoot over 34.2% from three-point range.
  • The Bengals’ three-point shooting percentage this season (34%) is just 1.5 percentage points lower than opponents of the Bobcats are averaging (35.5%).
  • Idaho State has a 4-2 ATS record and is 6-3 straight-up in games when the team makes more than 35.5% of its three-point attempts.
  • Montana State is 4-5-1 ATS and 6-5 overall in games when shooting over 34% from deep.
  • When Idaho State makes more three-pointers than its opponents, it is 6-3 against the spread and 10-3 overall. When Montana State is out-shot from deep by its opponents, it is 4-8 ATS and 8-6 straight up.

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