The No. 5 seed CSU Bakersfield Roadrunners (15-10) are 3.5-point favorites in the Big West Tournament quarterfinals over the No. 4 seed UC Davis Aggies (9-7) on Thursday at Mandalay Bay Event Center. The game begins at 5:00 PM ET and airs on ESPN3, with the winner moving one step closer to securing a guaranteed spot in the NCAA Tournament bracket.
The betting insights and predictions in this article reflect betting data from DraftKings as of March 11, 2021, 2:10 AM ET. See table below for current betting odds and CLICK HERE to bet at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Best Betting Odds
Computer Picks
Pick ATS:
Roadrunners (-3.5)
The model projects the Roadrunners to win, just as DraftKings does, but the model favors them by a small margin more (5.3 to 3.5).
Pick OU:
Over (133.5)
In this matchup, the model projects a total (140.1 points) marginally higher than the DraftKings over/under (133.5 points).
Prediction: CSU Bakersfield 73, UC Davis 67
Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm (raw power score) that ranks head-to-head matchup results within a closed network of games. Prediction confidence is determined by the delta between each team’s raw power score.
Examining the Over/Under
- The average implied total for the Roadrunners this season is 70.3 points, 1.3 more points than their implied total of 69 points in Thursday’s game.
- CSU Bakersfield has outscored its implied point total for this matchup (69) 12 times this season.
- The Aggies’ average implied point total on the season (75.3 points) is 10.3 points higher than their implied total in this matchup (65 points).
- UC Davis has put up more than 65 points in 14 games on the season.
Implied totals are projected point totals for each team based on totals and spreads set by sportsbooks.
CSU Bakersfield and UC Davis Records ATS
| ATS Record | ATS Record Against 3.5+ Point Spread | Over/Under Record (O-U-P) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Roadrunners | 11-7 | 5-3 | 10-8 |
| Aggies | 6-6 | 2-2 | 5-6-1 |
Against The Spread (ATS) records are only reflective of games that had odds on them.
Betting Tips – Shooting Stats
- The Roadrunners are shooting 44.2% from the field this season, 2.5 percentage points lower than the 46.7% the Aggies allow to opponents.
- In games when CSU Bakersfield shoots higher than 46.7% from the field, it is 4-2 against the spread and 7-3 overall.
- UC Davis is 5-1 against the spread and 6-2 overall when its opponents shoot higher than 44.2% from the field.
- The Aggies are shooting 43.9% from the field, 2% higher than the 41.9% the Roadrunners’ opponents have shot this season.
- UC Davis is 6-4 overall and 4-4 against the spread when it hits more than 41.9% of its attempts from the field.
- This season, CSU Bakersfield has a 7-2 record against the spread and an 11-3 straight up record when it allows opponents to shoot higher than 43.9% from the field.
- The Roadrunners shoot 35.9% from three-point range, 0.1% higher than the 35.8% the Aggies allow to opponents.
- CSU Bakersfield has a 5-2 record against the spread and a 6-4 record overall when the team connects on more than 35.8% of its attempts from three-point range.
- UC Davis has gone 8-2 overall and has a 5-3 record against the spread in games this season when its opponents shoot higher than 35.9% from deep.
- The Aggies’ three-point shooting percentage this season (33.2%) is just 0.3 percentage points lower than opponents of the Roadrunners are averaging (33.5%).
- UC Davis is 3-2 against the spread and 5-2 overall when shooting above 33.5% as a team from three-point range.
- CSU Bakersfield has a 7-0 ATS record and an 8-2 straight-up record in games this season it has shot better than 33.2% from deep.
- CSU Bakersfield is 7-0 against the spread and 8-2 overall when it hit more three-pointers than its opponents, while UC Davis is 4-4 ATS and 3-7 straight up in games when it is out-shot from distance.
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