UCLA vs. Oregon State Picks & Best Bets — Pac-12 Tournament 2021

Written By PlayPicks Staff on March 11, 2021

The No. 5 seed Oregon State Beavers (14-12) are 5-point underdogs in their Pac-12 Tournament quarterfinals matchup against the No. 4 seed UCLA Bruins (17-8) on Thursday at T-Mobile Arena, starting at 5:30 PM ET on PACN. The winner moves one step closer to the conference championship and an automatic berth in the NCAA Tournament bracket.

The betting insights and predictions in this article reflect betting data from DraftKings as of March 11, 2021, 2:10 AM ET. See table below for current betting odds and CLICK HERE to bet at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Best Betting Odds

Computer Picks

Pick ATS:
Bruins (-5)

The model line and the DraftKings line are within 0.1 points of each other.

Pick OU:
Over (133)

In this matchup, the model projects a total (139.0 points) marginally higher than the DraftKings over/under (133 points).

Prediction: UCLA 72, Oregon State 67

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm (raw power score) that ranks head-to-head matchup results within a closed network of games. Prediction confidence is determined by the delta between each team’s raw power score.

Examining the Over/Under

  • The Bruins’ average implied point total this season is 2.8 more points than their implied total in Thursday’s game (71.8 implied points on average compared to 69 implied points in this game).
  • UCLA is looking to surpass its implied point total for this matchup (69) for the 17th time this season.
  • The average implied point total on the season for the Beavers (72.6) is 8.6 more points than the team’s implied total in this matchup (64).
  • Oregon State is attempting to outscore its implied point total for this matchup (64) for the 18th time this season.

Implied totals are projected point totals for each team based on totals and spreads set by sportsbooks.

UCLA and Oregon State Records ATS

ATS Record ATS Record Against 5+ Point Spread Over/Under Record (O-U-P)
Bruins 11-13 4-7 14-10
Beavers 15-9-1 2-3 14-11

Against The Spread (ATS) records are only reflective of games that had odds on them.

Betting Tips – Shooting Stats

  • The Bruins are shooting 46.3% from the field this season, 2.4 percentage points higher than the 43.9% the Beavers allow to opponents.
  • In games UCLA shoots higher than 43.9% from the field, it is 10-7 against the spread and 14-4 overall.
  • Oregon State is 11-4-1 against the spread and 10-7 overall when allowing opponents to shoot better than 46.3% from the field.
  • The Beavers have shot at a 43.1% clip from the field this season, 0.7 percentage points below the 43.8% shooting opponents of the Bruins have averaged.
  • Oregon State is 11-2 overall and 10-1-1 against the spread when it shoots higher than 43.8% from the field.
  • UCLA is 6-4 against the spread and 10-1 overall in games it allows opponents to shoot greater than 43.1% from the field.
  • The Bruins’ 37.3% three-point shooting percentage this season is 6.1 percentage points higher than opponents of the Beavers have shot from beyond the arc (31.2%).
  • UCLA has put together a 12-5 straight-up record and a 7-9 record against the spread in games when the team knocks down more than 31.2% of its three-point attempts this season.
  • Oregon State has put up a 12-6 straight-up record and gone 12-4-1 against the spread in games when its opponents shoot over 37.3% from downtown.
  • The Beavers shoot 34.1% from three-point distance this season. That’s only 0.9 percentage points lower than the Bruins have allowed their opponents to shoot from deep (35%).
  • Oregon State is 10-4 overall and 9-3-1 against the spread when it shoots above 35% as a team from three-point range.
  • UCLA has a 6-2 ATS record and a 6-3 straight-up record in games this season it has shot better than 34.1% from distance.

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