Boise State vs. Nevada Picks & Best Bets — MWC Tournament 2021

Written By PlayPicks Staff on March 11, 2021

The No. 4 seed Boise State Broncos (18-7) are 4-point favorites in the MWC Tournament quarterfinals over the No. 5 seed Nevada Wolf Pack (15-9) on Thursday at Thomas & Mack Center. The game begins at 5:30 PM ET and airs on CBS Sports, with the winner moving one step closer to securing a guaranteed spot in the NCAA Tournament bracket.

The betting insights and predictions in this article reflect betting data from DraftKings as of March 11, 2021, 2:10 AM ET. See table below for current betting odds and CLICK HERE to bet at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Best Betting Odds

Computer Picks

Pick ATS:
Broncos (-4)

Both DraftKings and the model expect the Broncos to walk away with the win, but the model spread (5.4) is 1.4 points further in their direction.

Pick OU:
Under (146.5)

In this matchup, the model projects a total (141.7 points) a little lower than the DraftKings over/under (146.5 points).

Prediction: Boise State 74, Nevada 68

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm (raw power score) that ranks head-to-head matchup results within a closed network of games. Prediction confidence is determined by the delta between each team’s raw power score.

Examining the Over/Under

  • The Broncos’ average implied point total this season is 1.4 more points than their implied total in Thursday’s game (76.4 implied points on average compared to 75 implied points in this game).
  • This season, Boise State has outscored its implied point total for this matchup (75) 14 times.
  • The Wolf Pack’s average implied point total on the season (73.2 points) is 2.2 points higher than their implied total in this matchup (71 points).
  • Nevada has put up more than 71 points 14 times this season.

Implied totals are projected point totals for each team based on totals and spreads set by sportsbooks.

Boise State and Nevada Records ATS

ATS Record ATS Record Against 4+ Point Spread Over/Under Record (O-U-P)
Broncos 14-9-1 8-7-1 13-11
Wolf Pack 17-6 8-2 14-9

Against The Spread (ATS) records are only reflective of games that had odds on them.

Betting Tips – Shooting Stats

  • The Broncos make 45.3% of their shots from the field this season, which is 4.9 percentage points higher than the Wolf Pack have allowed to their opponents (40.4%).
  • In games when Boise State shoots higher than 40.4% from the field, it is 11-4-1 against the spread and 15-2 overall.
  • Nevada is 16-2 against the spread and 14-5 overall when allowing opponents to shoot better than 45.3% from the field.
  • The Wolf Pack’s 44.6% shooting percentage from the field this season is 2.3 percentage points higher than the Broncos have given up to their opponents (42.3%).
  • Nevada has a 12-4 record against the spread and a 12-5 record overall in games when it shoots above 42.3% from the field.
  • When opponents of Boise State shoot higher than 44.6% from the field, it is 10-3 against the spread and 11-3 overall.
  • The Broncos shoot 34% from deep, 1.2% higher than the 32.8% the Wolf Pack allow to opponents.
  • Boise State has a 9-7-1 record against the spread and a 14-3 record overall when the team connects on more than 32.8% of its shots from three-point range.
  • Nevada is 10-4 against the spread and 10-5 overall when its opponents make more than 34% of their shots from deep.
  • The Wolf Pack shoot 35.2% from three-point distance this season. That’s 3.3 percentage points higher than the Broncos have allowed their opponents to shoot from deep (31.9%).
  • Nevada has a 12-2 ATS record and has gone 10-5 straight-up when making more than 31.9% of its three-point attempts.
  • Boise State has a 12-3-1 ATS record and a 13-4 straight-up record in games this season it has shot better than 35.2% from deep.
  • The Wolf Pack are 11-1 against the spread and 8-4 overall when they make more threes than their opponents, while the Broncos are 4-4 ATS and 5-3 straight up in games when they are out-shot from the three-point line.

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