The No. 3 seed Akron Zips (14-7) are favored by 1 point when they play the No. 6 seed Bowling Green Falcons (14-10) in the MAC Tournament quarterfinals Thursday at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse, starting at 6:30 PM ET on ESPN+. A guaranteed spot in the NCAA Tournament bracket is on the line as these teams look to claim the MAC championship.
The betting insights and predictions in this article reflect betting data from DraftKings as of March 11, 2021, 2:10 AM ET. See table below for current betting odds and CLICK HERE to bet at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Best Betting Odds
The DraftKings line for this matchup is within 0.5 points of the model. Stay away from this one.
DraftKings and the model are extremely close in their point total projections for this contest, within 1.0 point of each other.
Prediction: Akron 77, Bowling Green 75
Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm (raw power score) that ranks head-to-head matchup results within a closed network of games. Prediction confidence is determined by the delta between each team’s raw power score.
Examining the Over/Under
- The Zips’ average implied point total this season is 0.5 fewer points than their implied total in Thursday’s game (76.5 implied points on average compared to 77 implied points in this game).
- Akron has outscored this matchup’s implied point total (77) 11 times.
- The average implied point total on the season for the Falcons (79.4) is 3.4 more points than the team’s implied total in this matchup (76).
- Bowling Green has totaled more than 76 points in 16 games on the season.
Implied totals are projected point totals for each team based on totals and spreads set by sportsbooks.
Akron and Bowling Green Records ATS
|ATS Record||ATS Record Against 1+ Point Spread||Over/Under Record (O-U-P)|
Against The Spread (ATS) records are only reflective of games that had odds on them.
Betting Tips – Shooting Stats
- The Zips are shooting 44.8% from the field this season, the same as the Falcons allow to opponents.
- In games when Akron shoots better than 44.8% from the field, it is 9-0 against the spread and 11-0 overall.
- Bowling Green is 9-2 overall and 6-4 against the spread when allowing its opponents to shoot higher than 44.8% from the field.
- The Falcons have shot at a 42.4% rate from the field this season, 0.9 percentage points below the 43.3% shooting opponents of the Zips have averaged.
- Bowling Green is 10-1 overall and 6-3 against the spread when it shoots better than 43.3% from the field.
- Akron is 7-1 overall and 7-0 against the spread in games it allows opponents to shoot higher than 42.4% from the field.
- The Zips shoot 33.7% from beyond the arc, 0.4% lower than the 34.1% the Falcons allow to opponents.
- Akron is 9-0 overall and 7-1 against the spread when it shoots better than 34.1% from distance.
- Bowling Green has put together a 9-4 straight-up record and gone 7-4 against the spread in games when its opponents shoot above 33.7% from downtown.
- The Falcons’ three-point shooting percentage this season (32.9%) is only 1.3 percentage points higher than opponents of the Zips are averaging (31.6%).
- Bowling Green has a 6-4 ATS record and is 10-2 straight-up in games when the team makes more than 31.6% of its three-point attempts.
- Akron has an 8-3 ATS record and a 10-3 straight-up record in games this season when it makes more than 32.9% of its three-point shots.
- The Zips’ 9.7 made three-pointers per game this season is 1.2 more made shots on average than the 8.5 per game the Falcons allow.
- The Zips are 11-4 against the spread and 12-4 overall when they make more threes than their opponents, while the Falcons are 3-7 ATS and 5-5 straight up in games when they are out-shot from the three-point line.
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