The No. 6 seed UCF Knights (10-11) are 5.5-point favorites in the AAC Tournament against the No. 11 seed East Carolina Pirates (8-10) on Thursday at Dickies Arena. The game tips at 7:00 PM ET and airs on ESPNU, with the winner moving one step closer to securing a guaranteed spot in the NCAA Tournament bracket.
The betting insights and predictions in this article reflect betting data from DraftKings as of March 11, 2021, 2:10 AM ET. See table below for current betting odds and CLICK HERE to bet at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Best Betting Odds
The spread for this matchup suggested by the model (4.2 points) is a little bit less than the 5.5-point edge DraftKings gives to the Knights, though the data still has them as the favorite.
The model projects a total 1.9 points higher than the one set by DraftKings for this matchup.
Prediction: UCF 70, East Carolina 66
Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm (raw power score) that ranks head-to-head matchup results within a closed network of games. Prediction confidence is determined by the delta between each team’s raw power score.
Examining the Over/Under
- The average implied total for the Knights this season is 70.4 points, 0.4 more points than their implied total of 70 points in Thursday’s game.
- UCF has outscored this matchup’s implied point total (70) seven times.
- The Pirates’ average implied point total on the season (71.8 points) is 7.8 points higher than their implied total in this matchup (64 points).
- East Carolina is trying to surpass its implied point total for this matchup (64) for the 10th time this season.
Implied totals are projected point totals for each team based on totals and spreads set by sportsbooks.
UCF and East Carolina Records ATS
|ATS Record||ATS Record Against 5.5+ Point Spread||Over/Under Record (O-U-P)|
Against The Spread (ATS) records are only reflective of games that had odds on them.
Betting Tips – Shooting Stats
- This season, the Knights have a 43.2% shooting percentage from the field, which is 1.2% higher than the 42% of shots the Pirates’ opponents have made.
- In games when UCF shoots better than 42% from the field, it is 8-3 against the spread and 7-4 overall.
- East Carolina’s record is 5-6 against the spread and 7-5 overall when its opponents make more than 43.2% of their shots from the field.
- The Pirates are shooting 41.1% from the field, 2.2% lower than the 43.3% the Knights’ opponents have shot this season.
- East Carolina is 3-2 against the spread and 6-1 overall when it shoots higher than 43.3% from the field.
- When UCF’s opponents shoot above 41.1% from the field, it is 4-3 against the spread and 4-3 overall.
- The Knights are hitting 36.2% of their three-point shots this season, 4.1% higher than the 32.1% the Pirates allow opponents to shoot from deep.
- UCF has assembled a 7-7 straight-up record and a 9-5 record against the spread in games when the team connects on more than 32.1% of its three-point shots this season.
- East Carolina has put up a 4-6 against the spread while going 7-4 overall in games this season when its opponents shoot better than 36.2% from deep.
- The Pirates shoot 30.9% from three-point distance this season. That’s 2.3 percentage points lower than the Knights have allowed their opponents to shoot from deep (33.2%).
- East Carolina is 5-3 overall and 2-5 against the spread when it shoots over 33.2% as a team from three-point distance.
- UCF is 5-3 ATS and 5-3 overall in games it shoots over 30.9% from deep.
- The Knights hit 8 three-pointers per game this season, 2.1 more makes per game than the Pirates give up (5.9).
- UCF has gone 7-3 against the spread and 6-4 overall this season in games it has out-shot its opponents from the three-point line. When East Carolina makes fewer threes than its opponents, it is 2-9 ATS and 4-8 straight up.
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