Missouri vs. Georgia Picks & Best Bets — SEC Tournament 2021

Written By PlayPicks Staff on March 11, 2021

The No. 7 seed Missouri Tigers (15-8) play the No. 10 seed Georgia Bulldogs (14-11) as 6-point favorites in the SEC Tournament quarterfinals Thursday at Bridgestone Arena, tipping off at 7:00 PM ET on SECN. Both teams will look to take one step closer to earning an automatic place in the NCAA Tournament bracket.

The betting insights and predictions in this article reflect betting data from DraftKings as of March 11, 2021, 2:10 AM ET. See table below for current betting odds and CLICK HERE to bet at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Best Betting Odds

Computer Picks

Pick ATS:
Bulldogs (+6)

The model and DraftKings both have the Tigers taking home the victory, but the model has them winning by slightly less (4.9 points). Lean towards taking the Bulldogs.

Pick OU:
Under (153.5)

The DraftKings point total for this game is just 2.2 points higher than the model projection.

Prediction: Missouri 78, Georgia 73

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm (raw power score) that ranks head-to-head matchup results within a closed network of games. Prediction confidence is determined by the delta between each team’s raw power score.

Examining the Over/Under

  • The Tigers have an average implied point total of 73.7 this season, which is 6.3 points lower than their implied total in Thursday’s game (80).
  • Missouri will look to surpass its implied point total for this matchup (80) for the 10th time this season.
  • The average implied point total on the season for the Bulldogs (80.6) is 6.6 more points than the team’s implied total in this matchup (74).
  • Georgia has put up more than 74 points in 16 games this season.

Implied totals are projected point totals for each team based on totals and spreads set by sportsbooks.

Missouri and Georgia Records ATS

ATS Record ATS Record Against 6+ Point Spread Over/Under Record (O-U-P)
Tigers 12-11 1-3 14-9
Bulldogs 12-11 2-2 13-9-1

Against The Spread (ATS) records are only reflective of games that had odds on them.

Betting Tips – Shooting Stats

  • This season, the Tigers have a 45.1% shooting percentage from the field, which is 0.8% lower than the 45.9% of shots the Bulldogs’ opponents have knocked down.
  • In games when Missouri shoots better than 45.9% from the field, it is 10-3 against the spread and 12-1 overall.
  • Georgia is 8-4 against the spread and 10-4 overall in games it allows its opponents to shoot higher than 45.1% from the field.
  • The Bulldogs have shot at a 45.8% clip from the field this season, 2.8 percentage points greater than the 43% shooting opponents of the Tigers have averaged.
  • This season, Georgia has an 11-4 record overall and a 9-4 record against the spread in games the team collectively shoots over 43% from the field.
  • This season, Missouri has a 9-4 record against the spread and an 11-2 straight up record when it allows opponents to shoot higher than 45.8% from the field.
  • The Tigers are knocking down 32% of their three-point shots this season, 1.9% lower than the 33.9% the Bulldogs allow opponents to shoot from deep.
  • Missouri has a 6-3 record against the spread and a 7-2 record overall when the team makes more than 33.9% of its three-point shots.
  • Georgia has put up an 11-2 straight-up record and gone 8-3 against the spread in games when its opponents shoot over 32% from three-point range.
  • The Bulldogs shoot 31.7% from beyond the arc this season. That’s only 0.1 percentage points lower than the Tigers have allowed their opponents to shoot from deep (31.8%).
  • Georgia has a 6-5 ATS record and is 8-5 straight-up when the team makes more than 31.8% of its three-point attempts.
  • Missouri has a 7-5 ATS record and a 9-3 straight-up record in games this season it has shot better than 31.7% from three-point distance.
  • The Tigers are 5-6 against the spread and 7-4 overall when they make more threes than their opponents, while the Bulldogs are 5-9 ATS and 6-9 straight up in games when they are out-shot from the three-point line.

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