The No. 10 seed Cal Poly Mustangs (4-19) are 15-point underdogs in their Big West Tournament quarterfinals matchup against the No. 2 seed UC Irvine Anteaters (16-8) on Thursday at Mandalay Bay Event Center, starting at 8:00 PM ET on ESPN3. The winner moves one step closer to the conference championship and an automatic berth in the NCAA Tournament bracket.
The betting insights and predictions in this article reflect betting data from DraftKings as of March 11, 2021, 2:10 AM ET. See table below for current betting odds and CLICK HERE to bet at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Best Betting Odds
Computer Picks
Pick ATS:
Anteaters (-15)
Both DraftKings and the model expect the Anteaters to walk away with the win, but the model spread (15.7) is 0.7 points further in their direction.
Pick OU:
Over (126.5)
The model predicts a total 6.4 points higher than the one set by DraftKings for this matchup.
Prediction: UC Irvine 74, Cal Poly 59
Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm (raw power score) that ranks head-to-head matchup results within a closed network of games. Prediction confidence is determined by the delta between each team’s raw power score.
Examining the Over/Under
- The average implied total for the Anteaters this season is 70.9 points, 0.1 fewer points than their implied total of 71 points in Thursday’s game.
- UC Irvine has outscored this matchup’s implied point total (71) 13 times.
- The 73.9-point average implied total on the season for the Mustangs is 17.9 more points than the team’s 56-point implied total in this matchup.
- Cal Poly has put up more than 56 points in 14 games on the season.
Implied totals are projected point totals for each team based on totals and spreads set by sportsbooks.
UC Irvine and Cal Poly Records ATS
| ATS Record | ATS Record Against 15+ Point Spread | Over/Under Record (O-U-P) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Anteaters | 9-7-1 | 2-0 | 7-10 |
| Mustangs | 8-11 | 0-0 | 6-13 |
Against The Spread (ATS) records are only reflective of games that had odds on them.
Betting Tips – Shooting Stats
- This season, the Anteaters have a 45.3% shooting percentage from the field, which is 1.3% higher than the 44% of shots the Mustangs’ opponents have hit.
- UC Irvine has a 9-2 straight-up record and a 4-2 record against the spread in games it shoots better than 44% from the field.
- Cal Poly’s record is 4-9 overall and 5-6 against the spread when its opponents make more than 45.3% of their shots from the field.
- The Mustangs are shooting 39.9% from the field, 1.2% higher than the 38.7% the Anteaters’ opponents have shot this season.
- This season, Cal Poly has a 4-8 record overall and a 6-4 record against the spread in games the team collectively shoots over 38.7% from the field.
- When UC Irvine’s opponents hit better than 39.9% from the field, it is 9-3-1 against the spread and 14-4 overall.
- The Anteaters are making 33.2% of their three-point shots this season, 1.9% lower than the 35.1% the Mustangs allow opponents to shoot from deep.
- UC Irvine has a 5-3 record against the spread and an 11-3 record overall when the team connects on more than 35.1% of its three-point attempts.
- Cal Poly is 4-4 against the spread while putting together a 2-8 straight-up record when its opponents shoot over 33.2% from three-point distance.
- The Mustangs’ three-point shooting percentage this season (32.7%) is the same as opponents of the Anteaters are averaging (32.7%).
- Cal Poly is 3-9 straight-up and has a 5-4 ATS record when the team hits more than 32.7% of its three-point attempts.
- UC Irvine has a 9-2 straight-up record and a 5-1-1 ATS record when it has shot better than 32.7% from three-point range.
- The Anteaters’ 4.9 made three-pointers per game this season is 1.9 fewer made shots on average than the 6.8 per game the Mustangs allow.
- Cal Poly has gone 5-3 against the spread and 2-9 overall this season in games it has out-shot its opponents from the three-point line. When UC Irvine makes fewer three-pointers than its opponents, it is 4-6-1 ATS and 10-6 straight up.
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