Texas Tech vs. Texas Picks & Best Bets — Big 12 Tournament 2021

Written By PlayPicks Staff on March 11, 2021

The No. 6 seed Texas Tech Red Raiders (17-9) are 1-point favorites in the Big 12 Tournament quarterfinals over the No. 3 seed Texas Longhorns (17-7) on Thursday at Sprint Center. The game tips off at 9:30 PM ET and airs on ESPN2, with both teams hoping to move one step closer to an automatic berth in the NCAA Tournament bracket.

The betting insights and predictions in this article reflect betting data from DraftKings as of March 11, 2021, 2:10 AM ET. See table below for current betting odds and CLICK HERE to bet at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Best Betting Odds

Computer Picks

Pick ATS:
Longhorns (+1)

The model and DraftKings both have the Red Raiders taking home the victory, but the model has them winning by slightly less (0.4 points). Lean towards taking the Longhorns.

Pick OU:
Over (135.5)

In this matchup, the model projects a total (139.9 points) slightly higher than the DraftKings over/under (135.5 points).

Prediction: Texas Tech 71, Texas 70

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm (raw power score) that ranks head-to-head matchup results within a closed network of games. Prediction confidence is determined by the delta between each team’s raw power score.

Examining the Over/Under

  • The Red Raiders’ average implied point total this season is 4.6 more points than their implied total in Thursday’s game (73.6 implied points on average compared to 69 implied points in this game).
  • Texas Tech has outscored this matchup’s implied point total (69) 19 times.
  • The 73.6-point average implied total on the season for the Longhorns is 6.6 more points than the team’s 67-point implied total in this matchup.
  • Texas has scored more than this game’s implied total of 67 points 21 times this season.

Implied totals are projected point totals for each team based on totals and spreads set by sportsbooks.

Texas Tech and Texas Records ATS

ATS Record ATS Record Against 1+ Point Spread Over/Under Record (O-U-P)
Red Raiders 9-16 8-13 12-13
Longhorns 10-14 6-10 15-9

Against The Spread (ATS) records are only reflective of games that had odds on them.

Betting Tips – Shooting Stats

  • The Red Raiders are shooting 44.5% from the field this season, 3.6 percentage points higher than the 40.9% the Longhorns allow to opponents.
  • When Texas Tech shoots higher than 40.9% from the field, it is 9-9 against the spread and 14-5 overall.
  • Texas has a 9-9 record against the spread and a 12-6 record overall when allowing its opponents to hit more than 44.5% of their shots from the field.
  • The Longhorns are shooting 45.5% from the field, 4.7% higher than the 40.8% the Red Raiders’ opponents have shot this season.
  • Texas is 14-4 overall and 9-9 against the spread when it shoots better than 40.8% from the field.
  • Texas Tech is 9-11 against the spread and 16-5 overall in games it allows opponents to shoot above 45.5% from the field.
  • The Red Raiders are knocking down 34.8% of their three-point shots this season, 2.5% higher than the 32.3% the Longhorns allow opponents to shoot from deep.
  • Texas Tech has a 7-7 record against the spread and a 10-5 record overall when the team connects on more than 32.3% of its shots from three-point range.
  • Texas is 8-7 against the spread while putting up a 12-3 straight-up record when its opponents shoot over 34.8% from beyond the arc.
  • The Longhorns’ three-point shooting percentage this season (35.6%) is just 0.6 percentage points higher than opponents of the Red Raiders are averaging (35%).
  • Texas is 8-3 overall and 6-5 against the spread when it shoots above 35% as a team from three-point distance.
  • Texas Tech is 12-4 overall and 7-8 ATS in games it shoots over 35.6% from deep.
  • The Red Raiders’ 6.2 made three-pointers per game this season is 3.2 fewer made shots on average than the 9.4 per game the Longhorns allow.
  • When Texas makes more three-pointers than its opponents, it is 9-11 against the spread and 15-5 overall. When Texas Tech is out-shot from beyond the arc by its opponents, it is 4-11 ATS and 9-6 straight up.

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