New Mexico State vs. UT Rio Grande Valley Picks & Best Bets — WAC Tournament 2021

Written By PlayPicks Staff on March 11, 2021

The WAC conference tournament continues Thursday as the No. 3 seed New Mexico State Aggies (10-7) face off against the No. 6 seed UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros (9-9) at Orleans Arena, starting at 11:00 PM ET on ESPN+. New Mexico State is an 11-point favorite to move one step closer to an automatic berth in the NCAA Tournament bracket.

The betting insights and predictions in this article reflect betting data from DraftKings as of March 11, 2021, 2:10 AM ET. See table below for current betting odds and CLICK HERE to bet at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Best Betting Odds

Computer Picks

Pick ATS:
Vaqueros (+11)

The spread for this matchup suggested by the model (7.6 points) is considerably less than the 11-point edge DraftKings gives to the Aggies, though the data still has them as the favorite. Put your money on the Vaqueros to cover.

Pick OU:
Over (131)

The DraftKings point total for this game is just 3.9 points lower than the model projection.

Prediction: New Mexico State 71, UT Rio Grande Valley 64

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm (raw power score) that ranks head-to-head matchup results within a closed network of games. Prediction confidence is determined by the delta between each team’s raw power score.

Examining the Over/Under

  • The Aggies have an average implied point total of 73.2 this season, which is 2.2 points higher than their implied total in Thursday’s game (71).
  • This season, New Mexico State has outscored its implied point total for this matchup (71) seven times.
  • The Vaqueros’ average implied point total on the season (74.1 points) is 14.1 points higher than their implied total in this matchup (60 points).
  • This season, UT Rio Grande Valley has scored more than this game’s implied total of 60 points 14 times.

Implied totals are projected point totals for each team based on totals and spreads set by sportsbooks.

New Mexico State and UT Rio Grande Valley Records ATS

ATS Record ATS Record Against 11+ Point Spread Over/Under Record (O-U-P)
Aggies 4-9 0-2 5-8
Vaqueros 4-7-1 0-0 4-8

Against The Spread (ATS) records are only reflective of games that had odds on them.

Betting Tips – Shooting Stats

  • The Aggies are shooting 42% from the field this season, 2.1 percentage points higher than the 39.9% the Vaqueros allow to opponents.
  • New Mexico State has put together a 2-5 record against the spread and a 7-2 straight-up record in games it shoots higher than 39.9% from the field.
  • UT Rio Grande Valley’s record is 2-3 against the spread and 7-4 overall when it allows its opponents to make more than 42% of their shots from the field.
  • The Vaqueros are shooting 40.9% from the field, 2.7% lower than the 43.6% the Aggies’ opponents have shot this season.
  • This season, UT Rio Grande Valley has a 1-1-1 record against the spread and a 6-1 record overall in games the team shoots higher than 43.6% collectively from the field.
  • New Mexico State is 3-3 against the spread and 7-1 overall in games it allows opponents to shoot over 40.9% from the field.
  • The Aggies’ 30.7% three-point shooting percentage this season is 2.6 percentage points higher than opponents of the Vaqueros have shot from beyond the arc (28.1%).
  • New Mexico State has put together a 3-5 record against the spread and an 8-2 straight-up record in games this season when hitting more than 28.1% of its three-point attempts.
  • UT Rio Grande Valley is 3-3-1 against the spread and 7-3 overall when its opponents shoot higher than 30.7% from deep.
  • The Vaqueros are hitting 30% of their shots from deep, which is 3.4 percentage points fewer than the 33.4% the Aggies’ are averaging on the season.
  • UT Rio Grande Valley is 1-0-1 ATS and 4-2 overall when the team makes more than 33.4% of its three-point attempts.
  • New Mexico State has a 3-3 ATS record and a 6-2 straight-up record in games this season when it connects on more than 30% of its three-point shots.
  • The Aggies knock down 8.8 three-pointers per game this season, 1.9 more makes per game than the Vaqueros give up (6.9).
  • The Aggies are 4-7 against the spread and 9-5 overall when they make more threes than their opponents, while the Vaqueros are 0-5 ATS and 2-4 straight up in games when they are out-shot from the three-point line.

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