North Carolina vs. Notre Dame Picks & Best Bets — ACC Tournament 2021

Written By PlayPicks Staff on March 10, 2021

The No. 6 seed North Carolina Tar Heels (16-9) are favored by 6.5 points in their ACC Tournament quarterfinal matchup against the No. 11 seed Notre Dame Fighting Irish (11-14) on Wednesday at Greensboro Coliseum, starting at 9:00 PM ET on ACCN. The winner will move one step closer to earning an automatic spot in the NCAA Tournament bracket.

The betting insights and predictions in this article reflect betting data from DraftKings as of March 10, 2021, 1:16 PM ET. See table below for current betting odds and CLICK HERE to bet at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Best Betting Odds

Computer Picks

Pick ATS:
Fighting Irish (+6.5)

The spread for this game suggested by the model (4.9 points) is slightly less than the 6.5-point edge DraftKings gives to the Tar Heels, though the data still has them as the favorite.

Pick OU:
Under (151)

The DraftKings point total for this matchup is just 5.5 points higher than the model projection.

Prediction: North Carolina 75, Notre Dame 70

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm (raw power score) that ranks head-to-head matchup results within a closed network of games. Prediction confidence is determined by the delta between each team’s raw power score.

Examining the Over/Under

  • The Tar Heels have an average implied point total of 75.8 this season, which is 3.2 points lower than their implied total in Wednesday’s game (79).
  • North Carolina has scored more than its implied point total for this matchup (79) nine times this season.
  • The Fighting Irish’s average implied point total on the season (74.2 points) is 2.2 points higher than their implied total in this matchup (72 points).
  • Notre Dame has put up more than 72 points 13 times on the season.

Implied totals are projected point totals for each team based on totals and spreads set by sportsbooks.

North Carolina and Notre Dame Records ATS

ATS Record ATS Record Against 6.5+ Point Spread Over/Under Record (O-U-P)
Tar Heels 11-13-1 3-4 11-14
Fighting Irish 11-14 1-4 13-12

Against The Spread (ATS) records are only reflective of games that had odds on them.

Betting Tips – Shooting Stats

  • This season, the Tar Heels have a 44.1% shooting percentage from the field, which is 0.1% higher than the 44% of shots the Fighting Irish’s opponents have made.
  • North Carolina has gone 8-3 overall and 5-5-1 against the spread when it shoots higher than 44% from the field.
  • Notre Dame has an 8-6 record against the spread and a 9-5 record overall when its opponents knock down more than 44.1% of their shots from the field.
  • The Fighting Irish are shooting 46.6% from the field, 4.4% higher than the 42.2% the Tar Heels’ opponents have shot this season.
  • Notre Dame is 11-7 against the spread and 11-7 overall when it shoots better than 42.2% from the field.
  • North Carolina is 12-5 overall and 8-8-1 against the spread in games it allows opponents to shoot over 46.6% from the field.
  • The Tar Heels’ 30.9% three-point shooting percentage this season is 5.7 percentage points lower than opponents of the Fighting Irish have shot from beyond the arc (36.6%).
  • North Carolina has collected a 4-3 straight-up record and a 3-4 record against the spread in games when the team makes more than 36.6% of its three-point attempts this season.
  • Notre Dame is 5-4 against the spread while putting together a 6-3 straight-up record when its opponents make more than 30.9% of their shots from downtown.
  • The Fighting Irish three-point shooting percentage this season (37.1%) is 2.8 percentage points higher than opponents of the Tar Heels are averaging (34.3%).
  • Notre Dame has an 8-8 ATS record and is 8-8 straight-up in games when the team hits more than 34.3% of its three-point attempts.
  • North Carolina has a 9-4-1 ATS record and a 12-2 straight-up record in games this season when it knocks down more than 37.1% of its three-point shots.
  • The Tar Heels’ 5.4 made three-pointers per game this season is 3.8 fewer made shots on average than the 9.2 per game the Fighting Irish give up.
  • When Notre Dame makes more threes than its opponents, it is 9-6 against the spread and 9-6 overall. When North Carolina is out-shot from beyond the arc by its opponents, it is 7-11-1 ATS and 11-8 straight up.

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