The No. 6 seed Lamar Cardinals (8-17) are 5.5-point favorites to win and move closer to a guaranteed berth in the NCAA Tournament bracket against the No. 10 seed Houston Baptist Huskies (6-18) in the Southland Tournament semifinals Wednesday at Leonard E. Merrell Center, starting at 9:00 PM ET on ESPN+.
The betting insights and predictions in this article reflect betting data from DraftKings as of March 10, 2021, 1:16 PM ET. See table below for current betting odds and CLICK HERE to bet at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Best Betting Odds
The spread for this game suggested by the model (3.9 points) is a little tighter than the 5.5-point edge DraftKings gives to the Cardinals, though the data still has them as the favorite.
DraftKings and the model are extremely close in their point total projections for this game, within 0.5 points of each other.
Prediction: Lamar 75, Houston Baptist 71
Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm (raw power score) that ranks head-to-head matchup results within a closed network of games. Prediction confidence is determined by the delta between each team’s raw power score.
Examining the Over/Under
- The Cardinals have an average implied point total of 74.7 this season, which is 0.3 points lower than their implied total in Wednesday’s game (75).
- Lamar has outscored this matchup’s implied point total (75) two times.
- The Huskies’ average implied point total on the season (83.6 points) is 13.6 points higher than their implied total in this matchup (70 points).
- Houston Baptist has put up more than 70 points 15 times on the season.
Implied totals are projected point totals for each team based on totals and spreads set by sportsbooks.
Lamar and Houston Baptist Records ATS
|ATS Record||ATS Record Against 5.5+ Point Spread||Over/Under Record (O-U-P)|
Against The Spread (ATS) records are only reflective of games that had odds on them.
Betting Tips – Shooting Stats
- The Cardinals are shooting 40.7% from the field this season, 6.2 percentage points lower than the 46.9% the Huskies allow to opponents.
- Lamar is 3-3 against the spread and 3-3 overall when it shoots better than 46.9% from the field.
- Houston Baptist has a 3-1 record against the spread and a 3-2 record overall when allowing its opponents to hit more than 40.7% of their shots from the field.
- The Huskies have shot at a 43.2% rate from the field this season, 2.3 percentage points below the 45.5% shooting opponents of the Cardinals have averaged.
- Houston Baptist is 4-6 overall and 5-2-1 against the spread when it hits more than 45.5% of its shots from the field.
- Lamar is 7-1 against the spread and 5-3 overall in games its opponents shoot over 43.2% from the field.
- The Cardinals are making 30.3% of their three-point shots this season, 4.5% lower than the 34.8% the Huskies allow opponents to shoot from deep.
- Lamar has assembled a 6-3 record against the spread and a 5-4 straight-up record in games this season when knocking down more than 34.8% of its three-point shots.
- Houston Baptist is 8-1 against the spread and 4-5 overall when its opponents hit more than 30.3% of their shots from deep.
- The Huskies shoot 34.6% from three-point distance this season. That’s 3.9 percentage points lower than the Cardinals have allowed their opponents to shoot from deep (38.5%).
- Houston Baptist has a 5-1-1 ATS record and has gone 3-6 straight-up when making more than 38.5% of its three-point attempts.
- Lamar has an 8-2 ATS record and a 4-6 straight-up record in games this season it has shot better than 34.6% from deep.
- The Cardinals’ 4.9 made three-pointers per game this season is 3.3 fewer made shots on average than the 8.2 per game the Huskies give up.
- When Houston Baptist makes more three-pointers than its opponents, it is 6-3-1 against the spread and 4-8 overall. When Lamar is out-shot from deep by its opponents, it is 7-12 ATS and 3-16 straight up.
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