Northern Colorado vs. Sacramento State Picks & Best Bets — Big Sky Tournament 2021

Posted By PlayPicks Staff on March 10, 2021 - Last Updated on March 13, 2021

The No. 8 seed Northern Colorado Bears (10-10) are favored by 2.5 points when they play the No. 9 seed Sacramento State Hornets (8-11) in the Big Sky Tournament Wednesday at CenturyLink Arena, beginning at 11:00 AM ET. A guaranteed spot in the NCAA Tournament bracket is on the line as these teams look to claim the Big Sky championship.

The betting insights and predictions in this article reflect betting data from DraftKings as of March 10, 2021, 2:16 AM ET. See table below for current betting odds and CLICK HERE to bet at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Best Betting Odds

Computer Picks

Pick ATS:
Hornets (+2.5)

The model favors the Bears by 1.4 points, just 1.1 less than the 2.5-point spread set by DraftKings.

Pick OU:
Over (133.5)

In this game, the model projects a total (138.2 points) slightly higher than the DraftKings over/under (133.5 points).

Prediction: Northern Colorado 70, Sacramento State 68

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm (raw power score) that ranks head-to-head matchup results within a closed network of games. Prediction confidence is determined by the delta between each team’s raw power score.

Examining the Over/Under

  • The average implied total for the Bears this season is 72 points, four more points than their implied total of 68 points in Wednesday’s game.
  • This season, Northern Colorado has scored more than its implied point total for this matchup (68) 10 times.
  • The Hornets’ average implied point total on the season (70.7 points) is 4.7 points higher than their implied total in this matchup (66 points).
  • Sacramento State has scored more than 66 points 15 times this season.

Implied totals are projected point totals for each team based on totals and spreads set by sportsbooks.

Northern Colorado and Sacramento State Records ATS

ATS Record ATS Record Against 2.5+ Point Spread Over/Under Record (O-U-P)
Bears 8-8 3-5 6-10
Hornets 9-7 1-0 9-7

Against The Spread (ATS) records are only reflective of games that had odds on them.

Betting Tips – Shooting Stats

  • This season, the Bears have a 44.4% shooting percentage from the field, which is 3.6% lower than the 48% of shots the Hornets’ have knocked down.
  • In games when Northern Colorado shoots better than 48% from the field, it is 1-2 against the spread and 5-1 overall.
  • Sacramento State is 6-3 overall and 5-1 against the spread when allowing its opponents to shoot higher than 44.4% from the field.
  • The Hornets are shooting 45.3% from the field, 1.4% higher than the 43.9% the Bears’ opponents have shot this season.
  • Sacramento State has compiled a 5-5 record against the spread and a 6-7 record overall in games when it shoots above 43.9% from the field.
  • This season, Northern Colorado has an 8-4 straight up record and a 6-2 record against the spread when it allows opponents to shoot over 45.3% from the field.
  • The Bears shoot 37.3% from beyond the arc, 3% higher than the 34.3% the Hornets allow to opponents.
  • Northern Colorado has put together a 9-3 straight-up record and a 6-4 record against the spread in games when the team makes more than 34.3% of its three-point attempts this season.
  • Sacramento State is 4-7 overall and 5-4 against the spread when its opponents shoot better than 37.3% from deep.
  • The Hornets three-point shooting percentage this season (35.8%) is 7.9 percentage points higher than opponents of the Bears are averaging (27.9%).
  • Sacramento State is 9-5 against the spread and 7-9 overall when shooting above 27.9% as a team from three-point range.
  • Northern Colorado is 9-6 overall and 8-4 ATS in games it shoots over 35.8% from deep.
  • The Bears make 8.8 three-pointers per game this season, 2.2 more makes per game than the Hornets give up (6.6).
  • The Bears are 7-6 against the spread and 9-8 overall when they make more threes than their opponents, while the Hornets are 1-4 ATS and 2-4 straight up in games when they are out-shot from the three-point line.

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