Jackson State vs. UAPB Picks & Best Bets — SWAC Tournament 2021

Written By PlayPicks Staff on March 10, 2021

The No. 7 seed Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions (4-20) are 8-point underdogs in their SWAC Tournament quarterfinals matchup against the No. 2 seed Jackson State Tigers (11-5) on Wednesday at Bartow Arena, starting at 3:00 PM ET on ESPN3. The winner moves one step closer to the conference championship and an automatic berth in the NCAA Tournament bracket.

The betting insights and predictions in this article reflect betting data from DraftKings as of March 10, 2021, 2:16 AM ET. See table below for current betting odds and CLICK HERE to bet at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Best Betting Odds

Computer Picks

Pick ATS:
Tigers (-8)

The model projects the Tigers to win, just as DraftKings does, but the model favors them by a small margin more (9.3 to 8).

Pick OU:
Over (126.5)

The model predicts a total 5.8 points higher than the one set by DraftKings for this game.

Prediction: Jackson State 71, UAPB 62

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm (raw power score) that ranks head-to-head matchup results within a closed network of games. Prediction confidence is determined by the delta between each team’s raw power score.

Examining the Over/Under

  • The Tigers’ average implied point total this season is 6.5 more points than their implied total in Wednesday’s game (73.5 implied points on average compared to 67 implied points in this game).
  • Jackson State will look to surpass its implied point total for this matchup (67) for the fifth time this season.
  • The average implied point total on the season for the Golden Lions (76.2) is 17.2 more points than the team’s implied total in this matchup (59).
  • UAPB has scored more than 59 points in nine games this season.

Implied totals are projected point totals for each team based on totals and spreads set by sportsbooks.

Jackson State and UAPB Records ATS

ATS Record ATS Record Against 8+ Point Spread Over/Under Record (O-U-P)
Tigers 8-8 3-3 7-9
Golden Lions 13-8-2 2-0 12-10-1

Against The Spread (ATS) records are only reflective of games that had odds on them.

Betting Tips – Shooting Stats

  • This season, the Tigers have a 38.2% shooting percentage from the field, which is 9.3% lower than the 47.5% of shots the Golden Lions’ have hit.
  • Jackson State is 2-0 against the spread and 2-0 overall in games when it shoots better than 47.5% from the field.
  • UAPB has a 4-0 record against the spread and a 1-3 record overall when allowing its opponents to hit more than 38.2% of their shots from the field.
  • The Golden Lions are shooting 38.4% from the field, 0.5% lower than the 38.9% the Tigers’ opponents have shot this season.
  • This season, UAPB has a 4-6 record overall and a 6-2-2 record against the spread in games the team collectively shoots over 38.9% from the field.
  • This season, Jackson State has a 6-1 record against the spread and a 7-0 straight up record when it allows opponents to shoot greater than 38.4% from the field.
  • The Tigers are hitting 32% of their three-point shots this season, 7.8% lower than the 39.8% the Golden Lions allow opponents to shoot from deep.
  • Jackson State is 2-2 against the spread and 3-1 overall when it shoots better than 39.8% from distance.
  • UAPB is 7-0-1 against the spread while putting together a 1-7 straight-up record when its opponents make more than 32% of their shots from downtown.
  • The Golden Lions are knocking down 30.7% of their shots from three-point distance, which is only 1.2 percentage points greater than the 29.5% the Tigers’ opponents are averaging on the season.
  • UAPB has a 7-3-2 ATS record and is 4-8 straight-up when the team hits more than 29.5% of its three-point attempts.
  • Jackson State has a 7-3 ATS record and a 10-0 straight-up record this season in games it has shot better than 30.7% from three-point distance.
  • The Tigers are 5-4 against the spread and 8-1 overall when they make more threes than their opponents, while the Golden Lions are 6-8-2 ATS and 2-15 straight up in games when they are out-shot from the three-point line.

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