UNLV vs. Air Force Picks & Best Bets — MWC Tournament 2021

Written By PlayPicks Staff on March 10, 2021

The No. 10 seed Air Force Falcons (5-19) are 12-point underdogs in their MWC Tournament matchup against the No. 7 seed UNLV Rebels (11-14) on Wednesday at Thomas & Mack Center, beginning at 4:30 PM ET. The winner moves one step closer to the conference championship and an automatic berth in the NCAA Tournament bracket.

The betting insights and predictions in this article reflect betting data from DraftKings as of March 10, 2021, 2:17 AM ET. See table below for current betting odds and CLICK HERE to bet at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Best Betting Odds

Computer Picks

Pick ATS:
Falcons (+12)

The spread for this matchup suggested by the model (9.7 points) is a little tighter than the 12-point edge DraftKings gives to the Rebels, though the data still has them as the favorite.

Pick OU:
Over (128)

The DraftKings point total for this game is just 6.1 points lower than the model projection.

Prediction: UNLV 72, Air Force 62

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm (raw power score) that ranks head-to-head matchup results within a closed network of games. Prediction confidence is determined by the delta between each team’s raw power score.

Examining the Over/Under

  • The average implied total for the Rebels this season is 75 points, five more points than their implied total of 70 points in Wednesday’s game.
  • UNLV will attempt to outscore its implied point total for this matchup (70) for the 10th time this season.
  • The average implied point total on the season for the Falcons (70.9) is 12.9 more points than the team’s implied total in this matchup (58).
  • Air Force will attempt to surpass its implied point total for this matchup (58) for the 17th time this season.

Implied totals are projected point totals for each team based on totals and spreads set by sportsbooks.

UNLV and Air Force Records ATS

ATS Record ATS Record Against 12+ Point Spread Over/Under Record (O-U-P)
Rebels 8-14 1-4 11-11
Falcons 9-14-1 0-0 13-11

Against The Spread (ATS) records are only reflective of games that had odds on them.

Betting Tips – Shooting Stats

  • The Rebels make 44.6% of their shots from the field this season, which is five percentage points lower than the Falcons have allowed to their opponents (49.6%).
  • UNLV has a 7-2 straight-up record and a 4-3 record against the spread in games it shoots better than 49.6% from the field.
  • Air Force is 4-2 against the spread and 4-2 overall when allowing opponents to shoot higher than 44.6% from the field.
  • The Falcons have shot at a 44.7% clip from the field this season, 2.8 percentage points higher than the 41.9% shooting opponents of the Rebels have averaged.
  • Air Force has compiled a 5-10 straight up record and a 9-5-1 record against the spread in games it shoots higher than 41.9% from the field.
  • UNLV is 9-6 overall and 7-6 against the spread in games it allows opponents to shoot higher than 44.7% from the field.
  • The Rebels shoot 35.2% from beyond the arc, 0.9% lower than the 36.1% the Falcons allow to opponents.
  • UNLV is 7-5 overall and 5-5 against the spread when it shoots better than 36.1% from distance.
  • Air Force has gone 4-5 overall and has a 6-3 record against the spread in games this season when its opponents shoot higher than 35.2% from deep.
  • The Falcons shoot 33.7% from three-point distance this season. That’s 3.5 percentage points lower than the Rebels have allowed their opponents to shoot from deep (37.2%).
  • Air Force has a 6-3 ATS record and is 3-6 straight-up in games when the team hits more than 37.2% of its three-point attempts.
  • UNLV is 4-2 ATS and 7-1 overall in games when shooting above 33.7% from deep.
  • The Rebels make 8.4 three-pointers per game this season, 1.3 more makes per game than the Falcons give up (7.1).
  • The Rebels are 3-4 against the spread and 4-5 overall when they make more threes than their opponents, while the Falcons are 2-9-1 ATS and 2-10 straight up in games when they are out-shot from the three-point line.

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