Xavier vs. Butler Picks & Best Bets — Big East Tournament 2021

Written By PlayPicks Staff on March 10, 2021

The Big East conference tournament continues Wednesday as the No. 7 seed Xavier Musketeers (13-7) face off against the No. 10 seed Butler Bulldogs (9-14) at Madison Square Garden, tipping off at 6:00 PM ET on FS1. Xavier is a 6.5-point favorite to move one step closer to an automatic berth in the NCAA Tournament bracket.

The betting insights and predictions in this article reflect betting data from DraftKings as of March 10, 2021, 2:17 AM ET. See table below for current betting odds and CLICK HERE to bet at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Best Betting Odds

Computer Picks

Pick ATS:
Bulldogs (+6.5)

The model and DraftKings both have the Musketeers taking home the win, but the model has them winning by slightly less (5.2 points). Lean towards taking the Bulldogs.

Pick OU:
Over (133.5)

The model projects a total 4.9 points higher than the one set by DraftKings for this matchup.

Prediction: Xavier 72, Butler 67

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm (raw power score) that ranks head-to-head matchup results within a closed network of games. Prediction confidence is determined by the delta between each team’s raw power score.

Examining the Over/Under

  • The Musketeers have an average implied point total of 75.2 this season, which is 5.2 points higher than their implied total in Wednesday’s game (70).
  • Xavier has outscored this matchup’s implied point total (70) 11 times.
  • The average implied point total on the season for the Bulldogs (69.1) is 5.1 more points than the team’s implied total in this matchup (64).
  • Butler has scored more than this game’s implied total of 64 points 11 times this season.

Implied totals are projected point totals for each team based on totals and spreads set by sportsbooks.

Xavier and Butler Records ATS

ATS Record ATS Record Against 6.5+ Point Spread Over/Under Record (O-U-P)
Musketeers 10-9 4-3 10-9
Bulldogs 7-12-1 0-2 10-10

Against The Spread (ATS) records are only reflective of games that had odds on them.

Betting Tips – Shooting Stats

  • The Musketeers make 45.8% of their shots from the field this season, which is 0.2 percentage points lower than the Bulldogs have allowed to their opponents (46%).
  • Xavier is 7-2 against the spread and 9-0 overall in games when it collectively shoots higher than 46% from the field.
  • Butler has a 4-3 record against the spread and a 6-4 record overall when allowing its opponents to knock down more than 45.8% of their shots from the field.
  • The Bulldogs are shooting 41.1% from the field, 0.1% lower than the 41.2% the Musketeers’ opponents have shot this season.
  • Butler has compiled a 4-5 record against the spread and a 6-6 record overall in games when it shoots better than 41.2% from the field.
  • Xavier is 6-4 against the spread and 8-2 straight up in games when allowing opponents to shoot above 41.1% from the field.
  • The Musketeers are knocking down 32.1% of their three-point shots this season, 1.7% lower than the 33.8% the Bulldogs allow opponents to shoot from deep.
  • Xavier has collected a 7-1 straight-up record and a 6-2 record against the spread in games when the team connects on more than 33.8% of its three-point shots this season.
  • Butler is 4-2 against the spread and 6-3 overall when its opponents make more than 32.1% of their shots from deep.
  • The Bulldogs shoot 32.1% from beyond the arc this season. That’s just 1.4 percentage points lower than the Musketeers have allowed their opponents to shoot from deep (33.5%).
  • Butler is 3-3-1 ATS and 3-6 overall when the team makes more than 33.5% of its three-point attempts.
  • Xavier has an 8-3 straight-up record and an 8-2 ATS record when it has shot better than 32.1% from three-point range.
  • Xavier has gone 6-0 against the spread and 6-0 overall this season in games it has out-shot its opponents from the three-point line. When Butler makes fewer three-pointers than its opponents, it is 1-8 ATS and 3-7 straight up.

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